41 Manley Ter · Carnesville, GA 30662

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2022 2.79 ac lot $121/sqft · 21% below area Est $238k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offers to be placed on Xome.com. Interior inspections are not available, do not trespass! Forward all inquiries and questions to Xome Customer Service . NO REPRESENTATION TO VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHERIN.

Key facts

• 2.79 acre lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 217 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-289/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.0% in Carnesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#269 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #61 of 174 in GA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,258 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -20.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Dons Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	1mo	$238,000	$153	90
734 Nails Creek Xing	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	19mo	$225,000	$143	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $101,365
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $299,638
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30662

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $184,746

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $189,000 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Offers to be placed on Xome.com. Interior inspections are not available, do not trespass! Forward all inquiries and questions to Xome Customer Service . NO REPRESENTATION TO VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHERIN.

18. 2026-01-07
    price $193,500 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Offers to be placed on Xome.com. Interior inspections are not available, do not trespass! Forward all inquiries and questions to Xome Customer Service . NO REPRESENTATION TO VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHERIN.

19. 2025-11-13
    listed $191,970 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Offers to be placed on Xome.com. Interior inspections are not available, do not trespass! Forward all inquiries and questions to Xome Customer Service . NO REPRESENTATION TO VALIDITY OF INFORMATION IS MADE, BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHERIN.

20. 2025-09-30
    historical
21. 2025-04-25
    price $229,000
22. 2025-03-04
    listed $239,900 New
23. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus $229,000
24. 2022-03-09
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$859
• After-tax cash flow: $570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 1302250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,985
• Composite: 30.28/100
• National rank: #6281
• State rank: #61 of 174 in GA

Livability — Carnesville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #14591

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 7,950 people
• Metro: Athens-Clarke County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 7,950
• Household income: $53,487
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,625 people
• By 2030: 22,725 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 22,806 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 22,713 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 22,514 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 11% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Vietnamese 4% Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.6% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+69.5 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 62.43%
• Current HPI: 410.693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Athens-Clarke County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $189,000 MGMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $193,500 MGMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $191,970 MGMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $229,000 GAMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2023-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.