5827 Annibal Dr · Davison, MI 48446

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please make sure all lights are off and doors are locked and key is back in the lockbox BATVAI

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built area above grade: 960 square feet
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Lake privileges (Potter Lake); Paved road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Sump pump in basement; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($418/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.8% in Davison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in MI, #950 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,790 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-20,433
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,859
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $83	+0% $35	+5% $-14	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-15	+0% $35	+5% $85	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $70	base $35	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $139,900 Active 95-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $139,900 Active 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   Please make sure all lights are off and doors are locked and key is back in the lockbox BATVAI

3. 2015-01-12
   historical
4. 2015-01-11
   historical
5. 2015-01-11
   historical
6. 2014-07-11
   listed $85,000
7. 2014-07-11
   listed $85,000
8. 2014-07-11
   listed $85,000
9. 2005-08-31
   soldstatus $72,900
10. 2005-06-10
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$462
• After-tax cash flow: $880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Davison

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #950

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• City population: 33,757
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+93.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-07-11 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-07-11 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-07-11 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (MLS) $72,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-06-10 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $159 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.