18704 Caffee Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$254,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2025 10,585 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Walk-in shower
• Double vanities

Tags

• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED BREAKFAST ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• LUXURIOUS BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $254,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,975.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $187,267 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,975
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Caffee Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$167	96
18565 Blocton Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	6mo	$257,400	$172	92
18644 Caffee Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	6mo	$257,400	$172	89
18566 Caffee Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	1mo	$262,400	$175	88
18548 Caffee Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	1mo	$262,900	$176	86
18553 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	3mo	$254,900	$170	86
18662 Caffee Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,497 (0%)	9mo	$262,400	$175	86
18626 Caffee Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,444 (-4%)	8mo	$244,900	$170	80
10758 Bent Brook Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,583 (+6%)	1mo	$260,000	$164	66
18705 Caffee Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-15%)	5mo	$244,900	$193	64
18723 Caffee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-15%)	3mo	$239,900	$189	64
18668 Caffee Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-15%)	8mo	$234,900	$185	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $119,793
• Equity at exit: $236,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $370,896
• Equity at exit: $508,960

Cash invested: $73,353 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $209,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-270	+0% $-360	+5% $-451	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-508	-5% $-434	+0% $-360	+5% $-286	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-293	base $-360	+0.5pp $-428	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,494
• Closing costs: $7,859
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	23d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-28
   soldstatus $254,900 Sold 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

2. 2026-01-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

3. 2026-01-07
   status Pending 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

4. 2025-12-30
   price $254,900 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

5. 2025-12-29
   price $254,900
6. 2025-11-13
   listed $262,400 Active
7. 2025-11-12
   listed $262,400 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Ask about our interest rates, paid closing cost and easily added options. The spacious Freeport offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in 1,497 square feet – all on one level. It also features a two-car garage. The chef-inspired kitchen has an oversized breakfast island and a pantry, then opens onto a spacious great room. The expansive Bedroom One features a luxurious bathroom with a walk-in shower, double vanities, and an oversized walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms all offer generous closets, a laundry room and linen closet completes the plan. Quality materials and workmanship throughout, with superior attention to detail, plus a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also includes our smart home technology package!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,675
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,621
• Taxable loss: −$9,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Sold (MLS) $254,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $254,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $254,900 WAMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $262,400 WAMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $262,400 Greater Alabama MLS