5221 SE 21st Ave · Ocala, FL 34480

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,083 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1958 0.37 ac lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in a fantastic central location. This cozy property sits on a quiet street and features a peaceful front porch sitting area, a carport, and a spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home offers fresh exterior paint, a durable metal roof installed three years ago, and a new well replaced just 1.5 years ago for added peace of mind. Conveniently located with easy access to major travel routes—and with a Wawa right next door—this home blends comfort, character, and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• New well
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• FRONT PORCH SITTING AREA
• CARPORT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• NEW WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($605/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 53%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Belleview Middle School (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #259 of 571 statewide, top 46%, 1,573 students, 60% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 350 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $180k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,030 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,297
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -0.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6100 SE 22nd Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+2%)	18mo	$168,250	$152	55
5431 SE 28th Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	920 (-15%)	15mo	$33,000	$36	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,244
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,953
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34480

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $101	+0% $50	+5% $-1	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-7	+0% $50	+5% $108	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $96	base $50	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3950 SE 19th Ave Unit D Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	808	$1,250	$1.55	23d	1	1.03mi
4861 SE 31st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,700	$1.15	23d	1	1.07mi
3800 SE 17th Ct Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	808	$1,199	$1.48	23d	1	1.11mi
6851 SE 23rd Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	23d	1	1.12mi
2270 SE 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1022	$1,500	$1.47	15d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in a fantastic central location. This cozy property sits on a quiet street and features a peaceful front porch sitting area, a carport, and a spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home offers fresh exterior paint, a durable metal roof installed three years ago, and a new well replaced just 1.5 years ago for added peace of mind. Conveniently located with easy access to major travel routes—and with a Wawa right next door—this home blends comfort, character, and everyday convenience.

2. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in a fantastic central location. This cozy property sits on a quiet street and features a peaceful front porch sitting area, a carport, and a spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home offers fresh exterior paint, a durable metal roof installed three years ago, and a new well replaced just 1.5 years ago for added peace of mind. Conveniently located with easy access to major travel routes—and with a Wawa right next door—this home blends comfort, character, and everyday convenience.

3. 2025-12-18
   price $179,900 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in a fantastic central location. This cozy property sits on a quiet street and features a peaceful front porch sitting area, a carport, and a spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home offers fresh exterior paint, a durable metal roof installed three years ago, and a new well replaced just 1.5 years ago for added peace of mind. Conveniently located with easy access to major travel routes—and with a Wawa right next door—this home blends comfort, character, and everyday convenience.

4. 2025-11-21
   listed $189,900 Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in a fantastic central location. This cozy property sits on a quiet street and features a peaceful front porch sitting area, a carport, and a spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home offers fresh exterior paint, a durable metal roof installed three years ago, and a new well replaced just 1.5 years ago for added peace of mind. Conveniently located with easy access to major travel routes—and with a Wawa right next door—this home blends comfort, character, and everyday convenience.

5. 2021-04-30
   historical 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Great home to get started; No repairs or deferred maintenance; Restored house on quite cul-de-sac street; 2010 replaced roof; 2010 replaced HVAC; nice lot with privacyOwner is Realtor

6. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $77,000
7. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $77,000
8. 2018-08-16
   listed $79,900
9. 2018-08-16
   historical
10. 2018-08-13
    listed $84,500
11. 2018-07-17
    historical
12. 2018-01-17
    listed $89,000
13. 2011-05-09
    listed $55,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Great home to get started; No repairs or deferred maintenance; Restored house on quite cul-de-sac street; 2010 replaced roof; 2010 replaced HVAC; nice lot with privacyOwner is Realtor

14. 2008-09-15
    listed $93,500
15. 2008-08-13
    soldstatus $53,000
16. 2008-08-12
    soldstatus $53,000
17. 2008-06-16
    listed $53,500
18. 2003-01-24
    soldstatus $51,900
19. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$47/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$604
• After-tax cash flow: $1,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,517
• Household income: $77,557
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.60%
• Current HPI: 212.4262
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.84%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+414.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-24 Sold (MLS) $77,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-16 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-13 Listed $84,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-17 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-09 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-15 Listed $93,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-12 Sold (MLS) $53,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-16 Listed $53,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $924 · +30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.