541 Club Ct · Lake Mary, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.5/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +6.7/10.0
- DSCR +6.1/10.0
- Schools +5.1/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$189,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Charming, neat and clean home in Lake Mary gated community. Close to clubhouse. New floors, appliances, inside utility room, FL room under heat & air. Turn key ready; available immediately. Immaculately kept. Outside workshop area. Beautiful home truly turn-key ready. Home is VERY clean and shows beautifully. Decorated nicely. Kitchen is large with room for table and chairs. Lots of storage space. Owner converted a room to inside utility room/office. Many things new. Masterbedroom has two closets. All appliances convey. Split bedroom plan. Close to clubhouse for convenience. Storage area in The Forest for RVs or boats. Many community amenities and activities going on, including trips, golf/bowling groups. Two swimming pools, one heated year round. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, post office, mall and easy access to I-4.
Key facts
- Quiet cul-de-sac
- Tree-lined streets
- Gated 55 communities
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Deed restrictions; Directions available to property
- Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community: HOA: The Forest; Monthly association fee of $235.74; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities, laundry, storage, gated community, and street lights; Association fee is required; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 30 lb)
Exterior
- Parking: Carport (1 space); Boat parking available; Workshop space in garage
- Security: Gated community; Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby
- Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; North-facing; Residential property
- Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
- Exterior features: Sliding doors; Shed(s); Workshop
Interior
- Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
- Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
- Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#128 in FL, #1,923 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living D-.
- Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 700 students, 48% FRL); Seminole High School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 4,036 students, 53% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $136k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.17% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.65%
- Cash-on-cash
- 4.83%
- DSCR
- 1.21
- GRM
- 7.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $235,200
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 616 Woodland Ct | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,344 (0%) | 10mo | $213,000 | $158 | 88 |
| 144 E Plantation Blvd | 0.22mi | 2/2.0 | 1,341 (-0%) | 3mo | $235,000 | $175 | 87 |
| 114 E Plantation Blvd | 0.18mi | 2/2.0 | 1,374 (+2%) | 4mo | $215,000 | $156 | 85 |
| 116 E Plantation Blvd | 0.18mi | 2/2.0 | 1,359 (+1%) | 10mo | $245,000 | $180 | 81 |
| 242 Peppertree Ct | 0.11mi | 2/2.0 | 1,260 (-6%) | 12mo | $249,000 | $198 | 74 |
| 774 Pond View Ct | 0.28mi | 2/2.0 | 1,275 (-5%) | 8mo | $250,000 | $196 | 72 |
| 112 E Plantation Blvd | 0.17mi | 2/2.0 | 1,470 (+9%) | 6mo | $232,000 | $158 | 71 |
| 203 N Forest Blvd | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,180 (-12%) | 7mo | $138,200 | $117 | 70 |
| 113 E Plantation Blvd | 0.19mi | 2/2.0 | 1,510 (+12%) | 1mo | $165,000 | $109 | 70 |
| 151 E Plantation Blvd | 0.20mi | 2/2.0 | 1,227 (-9%) | 10mo | $193,000 | $157 | 68 |
| 606 Timberlane Dr | 0.14mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-11%) | 9mo | $240,000 | $200 | 68 |
| 410 N Niblick Ln | 0.13mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-11%) | 10mo | $245,000 | $204 | 68 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -11.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.60×
- Total profit
- $-21,259
- Equity at exit
- $28,181
- IRR
- -5.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.67×
- Total profit
- $-17,585
- Equity at exit
- $16,341
Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32746
- Home prices YoY
- -21.9%
- Rents YoY
- 1.0%
- Active inventory
- 317
- Price-to-rent
- 7.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,221 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$991
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
- Insurance
- −$79
- HOA
- −$235
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$466
- Net cashflow
- $213
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $47,250
- Closing costs
- $5,670
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 19 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 252 Wheelhouse Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1043 | $2,751 | $2.64 | 2d | 12 | 0.52mi |
| 474 Wishbone Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1733 | $2,750 | $1.59 | 24d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 780 Creekwater Ter Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 957 | $1,665 | $1.74 | 24d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 1011 Lychee Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1612 | $2,800 | $1.74 | 5d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 1000 Regal Pointe Ter Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1002 | $1,691 | $1.69 | 2d | 21 | 0.65mi |
| 683 Randon Ter Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1593 | $2,495 | $1.57 | 18d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 937 Birmingham Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1178 | $2,050 | $1.74 | 24d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 645 Astera Winds Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1844 | $3,800 | $2.06 | 24d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 356 Amethyst Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1666 | $1,200 | $0.72 | 12d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 938 Framlingham Ct #206 Lake Mary, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 998 | $1,750 | $1.75 | 24d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 291 Ruskin St Lake Mary, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 981 | $1,395 | $1.42 | 5d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 600 Birgham Pl Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1544 | $2,490 | $1.61 | 5d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 797 Minerva Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1518 | $2,345 | $1.54 | 3d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 420 Sun Lake Cir Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 949 | $1,770 | $1.86 | 3d | 17 | 1.35mi |
| 251 S 3rd St Lake Mary, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1152 | $1,700 | $1.48 | 3d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 700 Oakland Hills Cir Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1128 | $2,153 | $1.91 | 2d | 17 | 1.38mi |
| 542 Queensbridge Dr Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1408 | $2,395 | $1.70 | 24d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 726 Birgham Pl Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1518 | $1,995 | $1.31 | 15d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 188 E Crystal Lake Ave Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 950 | $1,870 | $1.97 | 4d | 6 | 1.45mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $235 · $2,820/yr
- Likely covers
- poolsecurity
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $189,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $189,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $189,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $189,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-13status $189,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-05-19status Pending
-
2026-03-16price $189,000
-
2026-02-27$199,000 Active
-
2006-11-17soldstatus $135,500
-
2006-11-10soldstatus $135,500 854-char remark
Show marketing remark (854 chars)
Charming, neat and clean home in Lake Mary gated community. Close to clubhouse. New floors, appliances, inside utility room, FL room under heat & air. Turn key ready; available immediately. Immaculately kept. Outside workshop area. Beautiful home truly turn-key ready. Home is VERY clean and shows beautifully. Decorated nicely. Kitchen is large with room for table and chairs. Lots of storage space. Owner converted a room to inside utility room/office. Many things new. Masterbedroom has two closets. All appliances convey. Split bedroom plan. Close to clubhouse for convenience. Storage area in The Forest for RVs or boats. Many community amenities and activities going on, including trips, golf/bowling groups. Two swimming pools, one heated year round. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, post office, mall and easy access to I-4.
-
2006-09-06$137,500 854-char remark
Show marketing remark (854 chars)
Charming, neat and clean home in Lake Mary gated community. Close to clubhouse. New floors, appliances, inside utility room, FL room under heat & air. Turn key ready; available immediately. Immaculately kept. Outside workshop area. Beautiful home truly turn-key ready. Home is VERY clean and shows beautifully. Decorated nicely. Kitchen is large with room for table and chairs. Lots of storage space. Owner converted a room to inside utility room/office. Many things new. Masterbedroom has two closets. All appliances convey. Split bedroom plan. Close to clubhouse for convenience. Storage area in The Forest for RVs or boats. Many community amenities and activities going on, including trips, golf/bowling groups. Two swimming pools, one heated year round. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, post office, mall and easy access to I-4.
-
2005-01-12soldstatus $94,000
-
2004-12-01soldstatus $94,000 334-char remark
Show marketing remark (334 chars)
IMMACULATE HOME IN PRISTINE CONDITION ! NEW VINYL FLOORING IN THE KITCHEN AND NEW BERBER CARPET. 23X10 SCREENED PORCH. FORMAL LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM. (SEE ADDITIONAL REMARKS. )TENNIS, SWIMMING POOL AND CLUBHOUSE ACROSS THE STREET. QUIET CUL-DE-SAC. OVER 55 COMMUNITY. CENTRALLY LOCATED AND CLOSE TO SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS AND I-4.
-
2004-09-08soldstatus $65,000
-
2004-07-09$99,000 334-char remark
Show marketing remark (334 chars)
IMMACULATE HOME IN PRISTINE CONDITION ! NEW VINYL FLOORING IN THE KITCHEN AND NEW BERBER CARPET. 23X10 SCREENED PORCH. FORMAL LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM. (SEE ADDITIONAL REMARKS. )TENNIS, SWIMMING POOL AND CLUBHOUSE ACROSS THE STREET. QUIET CUL-DE-SAC. OVER 55 COMMUNITY. CENTRALLY LOCATED AND CLOSE TO SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS AND I-4.
-
1980-12-01soldstatus $47,500
-
1980-03-01soldstatus $46,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,646
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,587
- − Property taxes
- −$2,835
- − Insurance
- −$945
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,132
- − Management
- −$2,132
- − HOA
- −$2,820
- − Depreciation
- −$5,498
- Taxable loss
- −$302
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$73
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,629/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Seminole
- NCES district ID
- 1201710
- Math proficiency
- 57% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,478
- Composite
- 51.05/100
- National rank
- #1769
- State rank
- #13 of 73 in FL
Livability — Lake Mary
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #128
- US rank
- #1923
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lake Mary, FL
- County
- Seminole County · 436,154 people
- City population
- 46,684
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 46,684
- Household income
- $104,775
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1929.0
Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 515,494 people
- By 2030
- 545,713 · +5.9%
- By 2040
- 598,068 · +16.0%
- By 2050
- 640,663 · +24.3%
- By 2075
- 724,461 · +40.5%
- By 2100
- 755,530 · +46.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Seminole
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -77.09%
- Current HPI
- 274.7765
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.00%
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
+310.9% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-16 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-02-27 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2006-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
- 2006-11-10 Sold (MLS) $135,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2006-09-06 Listed $137,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2005-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
- 2004-12-01 Sold (MLS) $94,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2004-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
- 2004-07-09 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
- 1980-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-1.1%/yrLatest (2025): $263 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…