5847 Red Fox Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Winter Haven, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom double wide mobile home sits on an oversized corner lot! The home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and enclosed front porch. Both bedrooms have walk-in closets and the primary bedroom also has an en suite. The closed-in carport space offers extra functionality as a bonus room and also has an enclosed laundry room. The large corner lot has a fenced in backyard and also provides a detached workshop with AC unit perfect for storage, hobbies, and so much more! The neighborhood also has a boat ramp to Lake Fox for the boaters and fishing lovers! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, Legoland, and Hwy 27 for commute

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• En suite
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• EN SUITE
• CLOSED-IN CARPORT
• DETACHED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $160k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,638 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,377
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,976
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5657 Struthers Ct Unit 1 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,475	$1.84	14d	1	0.40mi
5657 Struthers Ct Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,475	$1.89	10d	1	0.40mi
5665 Struthers Ct Unit 5667 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	23d	1	0.42mi
5667 Struthers Ct Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	23d	1	0.42mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,840	$1.98	2d	24	0.93mi
7676 Carlton Arms Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	987	$1,508	$1.53	23d	1	1.12mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,530	$1.49	3d	8	1.32mi
7903 Waterview Way Unit 7903 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	23d	1	1.35mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	14d	24	1.40mi
5202 Waterview Way #5202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2017-12-08
   soldstatus $50,000
4. 1998-12-29
   soldstatus $34,000
5. 1995-09-05
   soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$235/yr (+$20/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$115
• After-tax cash flow: $2,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+301.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,093 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.