229 Canvasback Trl · Brandon, MS 39047

$344,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.25 ac lot 2-car garage ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Holly floorplan is a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with over 1,900 square feet of comfortable living, as well as a 2-car garage. As you enter the home, to one side, a hallway leads you to three bedrooms and a full bathroom. To the opposite side is access to the garage and laundry room. The home has a central family room that opens to an expansive kitchen with large pantry, perfect for a family gathering. Entertain in style in the casual dining space that is adjacent to a covered patio, allowing easy access to the back yard. The primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and an ensuite with a double sink vanity. This ensuite is perfect for winding down in the garden tub or a nice hot shower. The primary bathroom also offers a separate water closet for privacy. The Holly includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. Pictures may be of a similar home and not necessarily of the subject property. Pictures are representational only. Contact us today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• White cabinets
• Private backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS FOYER
• INVITING LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH AREA
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $344,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,745.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (38.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.7% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,677 (38.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.92%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,745
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -20.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Lake Harbor Rd	0.96mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-10%)	4mo	$332,670	$189	45
346 Lake Harbor Rd	1.01mi	4/2.0	1,826 (-7%)	16mo	$339,900	$186	40
227 Lizzy Ln	0.79mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+16%)	2mo	$449,000	$197	34
235 Lizzy Ln	0.84mi	4/2.0	2,269 (+16%)	8mo	$442,455	$195	33
416 Lennon Ln	0.77mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+17%)	7mo	$456,500	$199	30
226 Lizzy Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,234 (+14%)	11mo	$435,600	$195	30
207 Lizzy Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+16%)	11mo	$420,000	$184	28
420 Lennon Ln	0.86mi	4/3.0	2,255 (+15%)	10mo	$449,900	$200	28
418 Barksdale Rd	1.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-15%)	9mo	$354,900	$214	28
222 Lizzy Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+18%)	16mo	$464,400	$200	26
412 Lennon Ln	0.86mi	4/3.0	2,256 (+15%)	17mo	$449,900	$199	22
425 Lennon Ln	0.95mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+18%)	17mo	$464,000	$200	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-168,133
• Equity at exit: $64,822

10-year hold

• IRR: -83.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.23×
• Total profit: $-272,044
• Equity at exit: $37,589

Cash invested: $121,729 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $344,450 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$543 /mo · $6,521/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-1,535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,343

Max offer price $212,677

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,234	-5% $-1,384	+0% $-1,535	+5% $-1,685	+10% $-1,835
Rent	-10% $-1,724	-5% $-1,629	+0% $-1,535	+5% $-1,440	+10% $-1,345
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,316	-0.5pp $-1,424	base $-1,535	+0.5pp $-1,647	+1.0pp $-1,762

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,686
• Closing costs: $13,042
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.25 acre
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Has association (management included in association fee)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectorsDead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedSmart home wired
• Home design: Single-family houseOne storyNew constructionBuilder model: the Holly
• Construction: Vinyl and brick exteriorPost-tension slab foundationBuilt by builder (year built source: builder)
• Exterior features: Architectural shingle roofSmoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing gas ovenFree-standing gas rangeStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanEntrance foyerHigh ceilingsTray ceilingsKitchen islandPantryDouble vanitySoaking tubWalk-in closetsSmart home featuresDead bolt locks
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup insideElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $344,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $344,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $344,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $344,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $344,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $344,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $344,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $344,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $344,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $344,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $344,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $344,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $344,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $344,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $344,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $344,900 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $344,900 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $344,900 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $344,900 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $344,900 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $344,900 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $344,900 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $344,900 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $344,900 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $344,900 Active 38 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $344,900 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $344,900 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $344,900 Active 1 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $344,900 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,900 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,900 Active 30 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $344,900 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $344,900 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $344,900 Active 25 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $344,900 Active 24 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $344,900 Active 21 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $344,900 Active 20 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $344,900 Active 19 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $344,900 Active 18 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $344,900 Active 16 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $344,900 Active 15 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $344,900 Active 13 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $344,900 Active 12 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,900 Active 11 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $344,900 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,352
• − Property taxes: −$6,521
• − Insurance: −$7,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$12,647
• Taxable loss: −$26,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior siding and installing smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.25 acre
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Has association (management included in association fee)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectorsDead bolt locks
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedNatural gas connectedSmart home wired
• Home design: Single-family houseOne storyNew constructionBuilder model: the Holly
• Construction: Vinyl and brick exteriorPost-tension slab foundationBuilt by builder (year built source: builder)
• Exterior features: Architectural shingle roofSmoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing gas ovenFree-standing gas rangeStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanEntrance foyerHigh ceilingsTray ceilingsKitchen islandPantryDouble vanitySoaking tubWalk-in closetsSmart home featuresDead bolt locks
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup insideElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $344,900 Zillow
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $344,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-28 Listed $349,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-27 Listed $349,900 Zillow