315 Revolution Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2025 5,478 sqft lot Est $303k · 9% over $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This incredible four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers spacious living and thoughtful upgrades throughout. From the stunning brick exterior and professional front yard landscaping to the fully fenced backyard, this home has standout curb appeal and outdoor charm. Inside, the open layout features a large entertaining space and a beautifully upgraded kitchen complete with Whirlpool® appliances, designer wood cabinetry, granite countertops, flush mount LED lighting, and a convenient USB outlet. The private master suite boasts natural light, a walk-in closet, and an extended shower for added comfort. High-tech features include a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, programmable thermostat, and

Key facts

• 5,478 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL); Venus Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 491 students, 80% FRL); Venus H S (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 725 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,807 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,280
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Cotton Bend Trl	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,732 (-3%)	3mo	$294,999	$170	60
313 N Point Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,050 (+15%)	10mo	$309,000	$151	51
117 Hamilton Way	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	50
602 Wheat Valley Blvd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,817 (+2%)	14mo	$325,000	$179	48
418 Fox Holw	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,886 (+6%)	20mo	$309,900	$164	48
105 Patton Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-7%)	4mo	$275,000	$166	48
2412 Galaxy	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,994 (+12%)	17mo	$364,990	$183	44
111 Patton Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	16mo	$280,000	$169	44
18725 County Road 620	0.69mi	4/3.0	1,952 (+9%)	8mo	$495,000	$254	41
142 Crockett Way	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,615 (-10%)	16mo	$300,000	$186	29
101 Harley Meadows Cir	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,044 (+15%)	18mo	$349,900	$171	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $90,934
• Equity at exit: $235,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $283,023
• Equity at exit: $453,882

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,948/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,933

Max offer price $263,064

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-234	-5% $-348	+0% $-462	+5% $-576	+10% $-690
Rent	-10% $-647	-5% $-555	+0% $-462	+5% $-369	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-378	base $-462	+0.5pp $-547	+1.0pp $-634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	2d	1	0.77mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	45d	1	0.86mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	8d	1	0.88mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	4d	1	0.88mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	23d	1	0.90mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	0d	1	1.00mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	1.05mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	25d	1	1.12mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	16d	1	1.15mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	23d	1	1.18mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	0d	1	1.18mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	45d	1	1.21mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	21d	1	1.22mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	0d	1	1.24mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	14d	1	1.26mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	13d	1	1.26mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	0d	1	1.27mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	45d	1	1.29mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	45d	1	1.31mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	0d	1	1.36mi
315 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	0d	1	1.38mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	3d	1	1.40mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	4d	1	1.43mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	45d	1	1.45mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	1.46mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	1.47mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	45d	1	1.47mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	8d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: internetlandscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $329,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-04
   listed $329,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,948
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$11,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,748
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $329,900 NTREIS