12350 Centerbrook Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$259,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1957 0.47 ac lot $206/sqft · 98% above area Est $239k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated 4-bedroom brick ranch sits on an oversized lot that gives you room to breathe and room to grow. Inside, recent improvements elevate the home’s comfort and appeal, while the partially finished basement adds flexible space for work, play, or storage. The extended driveway and rear parking area easily accommodate multiple vehicles, a boat, or an RV. Step outside to a spacious deck and storage shed, all surrounded by generous yard space and great separation from neighboring homes.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 53 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $260k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,662 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,031
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: 8.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Brixworth Ct	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	68
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+1%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	66
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,218 (-3%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	63
5237 Trailview Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	0mo	$208,000	$148	59
11678 Galba Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+2%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	57
12539 Early Morning Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+12%)	1mo	$225,000	$159	56
11975 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,157 (-8%)	10mo	$120,000	$104	52
5372 Priorybrook Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-8%)	10mo	$199,900	$173	47
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,124 (-11%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	45
11879 Galba Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-13%)	0mo	$159,900	$146	43
12820 High Crest St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,137 (-10%)	1mo	$185,000	$163	41
11735 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+9%)	10mo	$225,000	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $140,002
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $441,791
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $231,242

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	1d	1	0.52mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	1d	17	0.59mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	21d	1	0.63mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.63mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	1.27mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	7d	1	1.28mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	1.30mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $259,900 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $264,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $264,900 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This beautifully updated 4-bedroom brick ranch sits on an oversized lot that gives you room to breathe and room to grow. Inside, recent improvements elevate the home’s comfort and appeal, while the partially finished basement adds flexible space for work, play, or storage. The extended driveway and rear parking area easily accommodate multiple vehicles, a boat, or an RV. Step outside to a spacious deck and storage shed, all surrounded by generous yard space and great separation from neighboring homes.

14. 2026-04-24
    listed $269,900 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This beautifully updated 4-bedroom brick ranch sits on an oversized lot that gives you room to breathe and room to grow. Inside, recent improvements elevate the home’s comfort and appeal, while the partially finished basement adds flexible space for work, play, or storage. The extended driveway and rear parking area easily accommodate multiple vehicles, a boat, or an RV. Step outside to a spacious deck and storage shed, all surrounded by generous yard space and great separation from neighboring homes.

15. 2026-04-14
    historical $269,900 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This beautifully updated 4-bedroom brick ranch sits on an oversized lot that gives you room to breathe and room to grow. Inside, recent improvements elevate the home’s comfort and appeal, while the partially finished basement adds flexible space for work, play, or storage. The extended driveway and rear parking area easily accommodate multiple vehicles, a boat, or an RV. Step outside to a spacious deck and storage shed, all surrounded by generous yard space and great separation from neighboring homes.

16. 2025-12-18
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2002-02-20
    soldstatus $95,400
18. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,521 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$44/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+177.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $264,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $269,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $95,400 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,987 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.