12948 Broadridge Ln · Black Jack, MO 63033

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1992 0.25 ac lot Est $232k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This ranch-style home offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a fireplace, a finished basement with an additional bathroom, and a 3-car attached garage. Ideally located near local amenities and major thoroughfares, this property is brimming with potential and ready for your personal finishing touches. A fantastic opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-221/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,671 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4908 Jamestown Ridge Ct	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,960 (-5%)	9mo	$210,000	$107	70
4929 High Crest Ct	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,898 (-8%)	11mo	$200,000	$105	62
5172 Trailbend Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,855 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$92	62
5372 Trailbend Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,162 (+4%)	7mo	$259,900	$120	56
12270 Winterset Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,100 (+1%)	9mo	$279,900	$133	55
5226 Suntrail Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0	2,316 (+12%)	5mo	$259,000	$112	54
5348 Trailoaks Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,925 (-7%)	3mo	$214,000	$111	52
12870 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,761 (-15%)	6mo	$225,000	$128	49
5421 Trailbend Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,820 (-12%)	10mo	$193,500	$106	48
5325 Springtrail Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,831 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	47
1 Welwyn Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,848 (-11%)	3mo	$200,000	$108	46
5277 Trailview Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-13%)	10mo	$254,900	$142	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $136,720
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $427,590
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,693/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,100

Max offer price $231,750

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $48	+0% $-18	+5% $-85	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-100	+0% $-18	+5% $64	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $41	base $-18	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	0.51mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	22d	1	0.64mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	2d	1	0.86mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.90mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	1.09mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	44d	1	1.27mi
5454 Misty Crossing Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1518	$2,196	$1.45	8d	1	1.36mi
2075 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,850	$1.21	15d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 1992-09-14
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,693 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,693 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,693
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+80.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Listed $235,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,693 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.