15075 Ponotoc Dr · Kiln, MS 39556

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 344 Days on market

Built 1997 8,712 sqft lot Est $310k · 44% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next chapter in beautiful Jourdan River Shores—a serene and peaceful neighborhood known for its quiet surroundings, access to nature, and welcoming community. This charming raised home offers three bedrooms and two bathrooms, thoughtfully laid out across a spacious, split-level design. Step inside to an open-concept living and dining area, perfect for entertaining or enjoying quiet evenings at home. The flow leads seamlessly into a bright sunroom, accessed through two stylish barn doors—a unique and cozy feature that adds character and charm. The primary suite is privately situated on the right wing of the home, while the two additional bedrooms are tucked away o

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Nice-sized yard
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• STYLISH BARN DOORS
• DEDICATED WASHER AND DRYER
• GENEROUS LOT
• NICE-SIZED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.0% in Kiln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#69 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hancock County School District (rural): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #23 of 130 in MS (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.68%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,370
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6110 Kiowa St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-1%)	1mo	$359,000	$239	84
15227 Ponotoc Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,477 (-2%)	3mo	$275,000	$186	73
6371 Shawnee St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	0mo	$326,900	$195	69
6036 Pontiac Dr	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,586 (+5%)	21mo	$400,000	$252	51
6093 Apache Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+9%)	22mo	$339,000	$205	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,736
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,502
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39556

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $929/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6293 Pontiac Dr Kiln, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,670	$1.63	13d	1	0.42mi
16016 Highway 603 Kiln, MS	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,200	$0.99	44d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   price $174,900
3. 2025-10-15
   price $187,500
4. 2025-09-09
   price $199,000
5. 2025-07-29
   price $219,900
6. 2025-04-07
   listed $229,000 Active
7. 2021-10-02
   historical
8. 2021-10-01
   historical
9. 2021-10-01
   historical
10. 2021-10-01
    historical
11. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus
12. 2016-09-15
    listed $89,000
13. 2016-05-11
    listed $99,000
14. 2015-07-27
    listed $105,000
15. 2013-08-16
    listed $92,000
16. 2012-07-26
    listed $99,500
17. 2008-05-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$929
• − Insurance: −$5,993
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,971
• Composite: 38.88/100
• National rank: #4099
• State rank: #23 of 130 in MS

Livability — Kiln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #9853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kiln, MS
• City population: 7,583
• Population (ZIP): 7,583

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Hungarian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.52%
• Current HPI: 188.5373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+75.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $174,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $187,500 MLSU
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $199,000 MLSU
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $219,900 MLSU
• 2025-04-07 Listed $229,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-01-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-09-15 Listed $89,000 MLSU
• 2016-05-11 Listed $99,000 MLSU
• 2015-07-27 Listed $105,000 MLSU
• 2013-08-16 Listed $92,000 MLSU
• 2012-07-26 Listed $99,500 MLSU
• 2008-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $929 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.