2407 Haynes Dr · Midland, TX 79705

$318,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1977 6,708 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whether you're an investor or buyer looking to add value and make a home your own, this property offers great potential with several desirable features already in place. Enjoy a private courtyard, circle drive for added parking and convenience, and a sequestered primary suite with dual sinks. New carpet in the living room provides a fresh start, while the low-maintenance exterior with minimal yard upkeep offers easy living. Property to be sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring all reasonable offers.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Circle drive
• Private courtyard

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• SEQUESTERED PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SINKS
• LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces with garage door opener; 2 total parking spaces; Circular driveway; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 2407
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar; Blinds; Fireplace with gas log in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Emerson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 489 students, 51% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,576 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,172
• Equity at exit: $47,415

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-53,845
• Equity at exit: $27,495

Cash invested: $89,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,041/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,705

Max offer price $313,933

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $67	+0% $-23	+5% $-113	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-129	+0% $-23	+5% $83	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $58	base $-23	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2404 Goddard Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$3,100	$1.64	23d	1	0.13mi
2404 Northtown Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,700	$1.35	15d	1	0.19mi
2615 Haynes Ave Unit B Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,950	$1.19	15d	1	0.34mi
2801 Exeter Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2394	$2,900	$1.21	45d	1	0.48mi
2100 W Wadley Ave Unit L1 Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.53mi
2603 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.57mi
4601 Lanham St #11 Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,500	$1.76	23d	1	0.62mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	15d	1	0.63mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	23d	1	0.63mi
11 Marchelle Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2714	$3,200	$1.18	45d	1	0.75mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	4.0	3.5	2982	$3,650	$1.22	15d	1	0.76mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2982	$4,400	$1.48	45d	1	0.76mi
3134 Tealwood Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.79mi
2818 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$2,268	$1.93	15d	16	0.81mi
1800 Dukes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,000	$1.31	23d	1	0.82mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$3,000	$1.39	45d	1	0.84mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	23d	1	0.84mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	15d	1	0.84mi
3209 W Wadley Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,500	$1.65	45d	1	0.85mi
2606 Keswick Cv Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2027	$2,600	$1.28	15d	1	0.89mi
4715 Bishops Castle Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,900	$1.50	23d	1	0.91mi
3317 Providence Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	45d	1	1.02mi
1413 Ventura Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,895	$1.21	45d	1	1.14mi
2218 N H St Midland, TX	2.0	3.0	2272	$3,500	$1.54	45d	1	1.20mi
3302 Fannin Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,000	$1.30	23d	1	1.25mi
3326 W Dengar Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	23d	1	1.32mi
1902 N I St Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,400	$1.10	45d	1	1.40mi
2204 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$3,000	$1.45	45d	1	1.44mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,800	$1.59	15d	8	1.46mi
806 Neely Ave Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2767	$3,900	$1.41	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $318,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $318,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $318,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 501-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $318,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $318,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Whether you're an investor or buyer looking to add value and make a home your own, this property offers great potential with several desirable features already in place. Enjoy a private courtyard, circle drive for added parking and convenience, and a sequestered primary suite with dual sinks. New carpet in the living room provides a fresh start, while the low-maintenance exterior with minimal yard upkeep offers easy living. Property to be sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring all reasonable offers.

20. 2026-05-21
    listed $318,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Whether you're an investor or buyer looking to add value and make a home your own, this property offers great potential with several desirable features already in place. Enjoy a private courtyard, circle drive for added parking and convenience, and a sequestered primary suite with dual sinks. New carpet in the living room provides a fresh start, while the low-maintenance exterior with minimal yard upkeep offers easy living. Property to be sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring all reasonable offers.

21. 2002-05-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,041 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,819 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,778/yr (+$148/mo · 44.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$4,041
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$5,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,374
• After-tax cash flow: $1,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $318,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $318,000 PBBOR
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,041 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.