1337 Natoma St · San Francisco, CA 94103

$1,395,000

12 bd · 12.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · MultiFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1906 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Located on a tree-lined street in the very vibrant & amp; popular Mission District, this spacious, light-filled, TOP floor, 2-level, 2 BDRM PLUS office/2.5 BTH condo in a 4 unit building is a winner! The inviting foyer leads to a spacious LIV RM. Down the hall and in the rear of the condo is a large DIN RM & amp; KIT w/ stainless steel appliances, granite countertops. Excellent space for entertaining. A full BTH completes this level. Up the staircase is a large open office, 2 BDRMS, one in the front & amp; the MSTR suite in the rear w/ access to the private deck. A 1/2 BTH in the hallway completes. Moments from Rainbow Grocery, Mission Beach Cafe, transportation including BART,

Key facts

• Large dining room
• 2 level
• Light-filled

Tags

• LIGHT-FILLED
• TOP FLOOR
• 2 LEVEL
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Living area of 1,353
• Construction: Classic early 20th-century construction
• Exterior features: Built in 1906

Interior

• Interior features: Located in the Mission District

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.40M. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive. Per door: $817/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.37M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $16,340/mo this rent would consume 168% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 2666% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $79k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $391k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$126k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,374,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $613,286
• Equity at exit: $787,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $1,883,359
• Equity at exit: $1,356,243

Cash invested: $390,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94103

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 28.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,744 /mo · $20,925/yr
• Insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,431
• Net cashflow: $3,268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,203

Max offer price $1,395,000

Occupancy floor 75%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	3	$16,340
Total (4 units)			$16,340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $348,750
• Closing costs: $41,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $1,395,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,142
• − Property taxes: −$20,925
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,686
• − Management: −$15,686
• − Depreciation: −$40,582
• Taxable income: $18,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,340
• After-tax cash flow: $34,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with some minor repairs needed to the exterior siding and landscaping. Painting and trimming will improve its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light discoloration
• Minor landscaping — Trees and fencing need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal
• Rental trim trees and fencing — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Trees and fencing need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim trees and fencing — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,964
• Household income: $116,438
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2666.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 175.4945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.50%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $1,395,000 FSBO.com