23817 Glowing Embers Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 9,021 sqft lot Est $248k · 10% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($94/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,413 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	99
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	77
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	77
23501 Firelight Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	77
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	77
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	76
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	74
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-5%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	74
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-5%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	74
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	72
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+7%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	66
13329 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-14%)	2mo	$220,990	$175	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $121,717
• Equity at exit: $199,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $358,687
• Equity at exit: $431,278

Cash invested: $62,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,024

Max offer price $221,990

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,498
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.42mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.45mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	23d	1	0.45mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.45mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	1d	1	0.55mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	0.57mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.65mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.67mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.70mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	0.82mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $221,990
3. 2026-03-19
   price $227,990
4. 2026-03-16
   price $225,990
5. 2026-03-12
   price $227,990
6. 2026-03-10
   price $280,990
7. 2026-03-09
   price $284,990
8. 2026-02-16
   listed $289,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$3,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$866
• After-tax cash flow: $960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $221,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $227,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $225,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $227,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $280,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $284,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $289,990 Unlock MLS