10263 Shadow Run Ct · Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1998 7,758 sqft lot Est $387k · 19% under $152/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. MOTIVATED SELLERS - RECENT PRICE IMPROVEMENT. We invite you to discover this well-positioned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desirable, guard-gated Seminole Lakes Golf & Country Club in Punta Gorda, Florida. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac and overlooking the 16th fairway, this home offers a peaceful, resort-style setting with stunning sunsets and abundant wildlife views from your private all-season Florida room. Seminole Lakes is known for its beautifully maintained grounds, 8 freshwater lakes, and convenient lifestyle—just minutes to shopping, dining, downtown Punta Gorda, I-75, and U. S. 41. Residents enjoy a l

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CUL-DE-SAC
• PRIVATE ALL-SEASON ROOM
• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA: $152 ($1,824 annual)
• HOA & community: Has HOA with monthly fee of $152; Association approval required; Association fee includes 24-hour guard, pool, private road, security, and other amenities; Community features: clubhouse, golf (golf carts OK), pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 20) with garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; On golf course; Paved surfaces; Cul-de-sac lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (located on first floor)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds and shades
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups inside; Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-623/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1490 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $244k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,690 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,100
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26244 Stillwater Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-0%)	1mo	$340,000	$173	89
26243 Stillwater Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,879 (-5%)	2mo	$385,000	$205	76
2910 Acline Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,022 (+2%)	12mo	$283,000	$140	72
26241 Feathersound Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,982 (+0%)	4mo	$350,000	$177	70
7101 N Plum Tree	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,896 (-4%)	13mo	$519,000	$274	54
433 Scarlet Sage	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,952 (-1%)	15mo	$355,000	$182	54
26165 Feathersound Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,214 (+12%)	5mo	$449,000	$203	51
7130 Scarlet Sage Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,246 (+14%)	4mo	$440,000	$196	45
744 Monaco Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,246 (+14%)	4mo	$500,000	$223	40
757 Monaco Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-14%)	16mo	$299,900	$176	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-54,299
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,323
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1490
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,360/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$152
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,783

Max offer price $305,821

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $37	+0% $-52	+5% $-141	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-159	+0% $-52	+5% $55	+10% $163
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $28	base $-52	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26162 Stillwater Cir Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,000	$1.58	23d	1	0.39mi
9489 Turtle Grass Cir Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	15d	1	0.69mi
3845 Albacete Cir #50 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$2,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.82mi
3800 Tripoli Blvd #35 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$4,200	$2.89	23d	1	0.87mi
26120 Jones Loop Rd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$2,275	$2.06	15d	27	0.99mi
3701 Albacete Cir #98 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$3,250	$2.24	23d	1	1.13mi
7361 S Plum Tree Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,900	$1.38	23d	1	1.19mi
9975 Bishop Creek Way Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1899	$2,300	$1.21	23d	1	1.19mi
3900 Madrid Ct Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.5	2362	$3,000	$1.27	23d	1	1.22mi
9984 Spring Gulch Ln Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,849	$1.23	23d	1	1.24mi
9996 Spring Gulch Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	23d	1	1.24mi
3836 Paola Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.5	2558	$5,000	$1.95	23d	1	1.34mi
3500 Mondovi Ct #811 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$3,200	$2.01	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $152 · $1,824/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $315,000
3. 2026-01-25
   price $335,000
4. 2025-12-21
   listed $349,000 Active
5. 2025-09-29
   historical
6. 2025-08-19
   price $370,000
7. 2025-05-22
   listed $385,000 Active
8. 2003-11-22
   soldstatus $244,000
9. 1999-07-19
   soldstatus $182,000
10. 1998-06-26
    soldstatus $178,571

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,360 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,360
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − HOA: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Punta Gorda, FL
• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 68,831
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-21 Listed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $244,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $178,571 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,360 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.