4611 N Alford Locust St · Alford, IN 47567

$144,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 2018 0.78 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW—check out that yard!! This 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on a HUGE fully fenced lot with mature trees—perfect for pets, play, or backyard entertaining. Inside, you’ll love the open layout with a stylish kitchen, tons of cabinet space, and a cozy living area that feels like home the moment you walk in. The spacious primary suite features a private bath with a double vanity, giving you plenty of room to unwind. As an added bonus, ALL appliances stay—washer, dryer, fridge, dishwasher, range & microwave—so you can move right in!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($434/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pike County School Corporation (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #203 of 301 in IN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Petersburg Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #652 of 994 statewide, top 68%, 458 students, 57% FRL); Pike Central Middle School (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #236 of 330 statewide, top 72%, 366 students, 49% FRL); Pike Central High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #169 of 369 statewide, top 51%, 475 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $130,544 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,012
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-15,253
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47567

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$180 /mo · $2,160/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $86	+0% $36	+5% $-14	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $-15	+0% $36	+5% $88	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $73	base $36	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $144,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$2,160
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable loss: −$1,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$474
• After-tax cash flow: $908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,646
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6642
• State rank: #203 of 301 in IN

Livability — Alford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alford, IN
• Population (ZIP): 6,187

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,816 people
• By 2030: 11,348 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 10,351 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 9,410 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 7,638 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 6,118 · -48.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Native American 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.9) · D 21.9% · R 76.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -54.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.9 2020: R+52.7 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.97%
• Current HPI: 216.028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $144,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $18 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.