106 Creekwood Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1980 5,314 sqft lot $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE INVESTMENT OR STARTER HOME. THIS HOME SITS ON 4 NICE SIZE LOTS AND HAS A GREAT WATERVIEW.

Key facts

• Waterproof flooring
• Brand-new kitchen
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• QUARTER-ACRE LOT
• BREATHTAKING LAKE VIEWS
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• WATERPROOF FLOORING
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Hidden Hills Harbor Add Sec C subdivision; Lot less than 0.5 acre
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Second mortgage: none; Loan type treated as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with a monthly fee of $19 that includes management fees; HOA managed by Hidden Hills Harbor

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1980; Siding construction; Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Deck; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One living area and one dining area; Wood-burning fireplace; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.48%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,496
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Oak Hills Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+7%)	16mo	$69,000	$64	54
146 Lynn Creek Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	14mo	$349,999	$312	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,288
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,311
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $349	+0% $309	+5% $270	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $252	+0% $309	+5% $367	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $345	base $309	+0.5pp $273	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Lynn Creek Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$995	$0.71	45d	1	0.78mi
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	45d	1	1.04mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	45d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $139,900 Active
17. 2026-03-16
    historical
18. 2026-02-13
    price $139,900
19. 2025-12-06
    price $149,900
20. 2025-09-16
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2012-01-16
    soldstatus 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    NICE INVESTMENT OR STARTER HOME. THIS HOME SITS ON 4 NICE SIZE LOTS AND HAS A GREAT WATERVIEW.

22. 2011-11-29
    listed $20,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    NICE INVESTMENT OR STARTER HOME. THIS HOME SITS ON 4 NICE SIZE LOTS AND HAS A GREAT WATERVIEW.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,202/yr (+$183/mo · 614.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $3,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+599.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2012-01-16 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2011-11-29 Listed $20,000 HCBOR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.