Vertex (Dry Fork) Plan · Hooven, OH 45002

$69,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 323 Days on market

Good condition $470/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a quiet, rural setting, just three minutes from I-275 in southwestern Ohio near the Great Miami River, Dry Fork Pointe is a mobile home community that is near the Ohio and the I-74 Indiana border, close to recreational parks and golfing areas. New amenities include a clubhouse, playground, basketball court and a ball field and Walking/Nature Trails. Whitewater Township in Hamilton County, Ohio, offers a small-town feel with close proximity to Cincinnati. Neighborhoods include grocery and other retails stores, community center, social services as well as churches.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Recreational parks
• Grocery stores

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT
• BALL FIELD
• RECREATIONAL PARKS
• GROCERY STORES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,194 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southwest Local (town): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #222 of 656 in OH (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.81%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $9,575
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $36,142
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45002

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,995 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,995 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,995 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,995 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,995 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,995 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,995 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,995 Active 308 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,995 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,995 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 305 DOM
14. 2025-07-31
    listed $69,995 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    Located in a quiet, rural setting, just three minutes from I-275 in southwestern Ohio near the Great Miami River, Dry Fork Pointe is a mobile home community that is near the Ohio and the I-74 Indiana border, close to recreational parks and golfing areas. New amenities include a clubhouse, playground, basketball court and a ball field and Walking/Nature Trails. Whitewater Township in Hamilton County, Ohio, offers a small-town feel with close proximity to Cincinnati. Neighborhoods include grocery and other retails stores, community center, social services as well as churches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 6% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $3,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide mobile home is in good condition with modern amenities and a good location. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest Local
• NCES district ID: 3904738
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,781
• Composite: 54.72/100
• National rank: #1321
• State rank: #222 of 656 in OH

Livability — Hooven

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1194
• US rank: #27069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hamilton · 838,887 people
• City population: 436
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,647
• Household income: $84,597
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.62%
• Current HPI: 210.9397
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $69,995 Zillow