700 Culbertson Dr #4 · Lake City, PA 16423

$57,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1992 Fair condition $53/sqft · 27% below area Est $79k · 27% under $410/mo HOA · 41% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1992
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-338/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $54k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#313 in PA, #2,785 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Girard SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #113 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($400 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.

Recommended offer $52,689 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,802
• List price: $57,900
• Delta: -26.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1049 Sherman Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+9%)	8mo	$230,000	$192	68
700 Culbertson Dr #2	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	14mo	$22,900	$23	59
1326 Nursery Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	13mo	$185,000	$157	56
9814 Smith St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	10mo	$259,900	$208	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $30,007
• Equity at exit: $52,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $90,307
• Equity at exit: $112,487

Cash invested: $16,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16423

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,025

Max offer price $53,825

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,475
• Closing costs: $1,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

2. 2026-05-19
   price $57,900 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

3. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

4. 2026-03-27
   price $62,500 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

5. 2026-02-19
   price $64,900 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

6. 2026-01-30
   listed $69,900 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath Mobile home located in a quiet and well-maintained 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,100 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and generous room sizes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,243
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$1,684
• Taxable loss: −$1,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$247
• After-tax cash flow: $-91/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with moderate repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrading the exterior, interior finishes, and landscaping can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance suggests potential need for repainting or replacement.
• Moderate Roof — Fair condition but may need inspection for leaks.
• Minor Carpeted flooring — Clean but may need cleaning or replacement for better appearance.
• Minor Paint — Fair condition but may need touch-ups for a fresh look.
• Minor Fixtures and finishes — Functional but may need updates in style and finishes for a more modern look.
• Minor Landscaping — Maintained but may need updates in design and plantings for a more appealing curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value by enhancing the home's appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the home and can increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance suggests potential need for repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Roof · Fair condition but may need inspection for leaks.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpeted flooring · Clean but may need cleaning or replacement for better appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Fair condition but may need touch-ups for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Fixtures and finishes · Functional but may need updates in style and finishes for a more modern look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Maintained but may need updates in design and plantings for a more appealing curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$8,000–42,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating fixtures — Improves both resale and rental value by enhancing the home's appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the home and can increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Girard SD
• NCES district ID: 4210740
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,089
• Composite: 47.42/100
• National rank: #2283
• State rank: #113 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #2785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,880
• Population (ZIP): 3,880

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.16%
• Current HPI: 252.0669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $57,900 GEBOR
• 2026-05-03 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $62,500 GEBOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $64,900 GEBOR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $69,900 GEBOR