245 Haisley Run · Guyton, GA 31312

$251,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Townhouse public records · 287 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $159/sqft · 12% below area Est $271k · 7% under $147/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME TO 245 HAISLEY RUN Elevate your lifestyle at 245 Haisley Run, a beautifully crafted New Haven Townhome B in the sought-after New Haven at Belmont Glen community. This 1,506 SQ FT home is designed for those who want a sophisticated, turn-key residence with the perfect balance of open social spaces and private retreats. CHEF-INSPIRED MAIN FLOOR: The heart of this home is an expansive, light-filled kitchen designed for both daily living and effortless entertaining. Premium features include: - Polished quartz countertops and upgraded cabinetry. - A stylish tile backsplash and a full suite of stainless steel appliances. - A wide breakfast bar that overlooks the spacious Great Room. - A bright dining area with direct access to your private back patio and scenic green space. THOUGHTFUL SECOND-FLOOR DESIGN: - Owner's Sanctuary: An upstairs retreat featuring a dual-sink vanity with marble countertops and a massive walk-in closet. - Versatile Secondary Bedrooms: Two additional bedrooms offer generous closet space and natural light, ideal for family, guests, or a home office. - Convenient Laundry: Strategically located on the second floor near the bedrooms to simplify your routine. - Upscale Details: Enjoy the high-end feel of marble countertops in all bathrooms and high-profile baseboards throughout the home. COMMUNITY & EDUCATION: - Relax on the back patio with a partial privacy fence for added seclusion. - Enjoy shared amenities with Belmont . ..

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Marble counter tops
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION TOWNHOMES
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• MARBLE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Guyton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Effingham Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #76 of 1,228 statewide, top 6%, 906 students, 26% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $221,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,133
• List price: $251,900
• Delta: -7.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
238 Haisley Run	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+7%)	2mo	$269,000	$159	80
247 Haisley Run	0.01mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+7%)	15mo	$308,040	$182	71
248 Haisley Run	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+7%)	14mo	$303,040	$179	70
231 Haisley Run	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,506 (-5%)	24mo	$287,500	$191	70
237 Haisley Run	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+7%)	16mo	$303,000	$179	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-48,520
• Equity at exit: $37,559

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-51,816
• Equity at exit: $21,780

Cash invested: $70,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $248,900 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 287 d
• This list price: 64% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,819/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $230,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-52	+0% $-123	+5% $-194	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-211	+0% $-123	+5% $-34	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-59	base $-123	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,975
• Closing costs: $7,557
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Alyssa Ave Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,300	$1.60	119d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $251,900 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $251,900 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $251,900 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $251,900 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $251,900 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $251,900 Active 281 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $251,900 Active 280 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $251,900 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $251,900 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $251,900 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $251,900 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $251,900 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $251,900 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $261,900 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $261,900 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $261,900 Active 266 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $261,900 Active 263 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $261,900 Active 262 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $261,900 Active 261 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $261,900 Active 260 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $261,900 Active 259 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $264,900 Active 258 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $264,900 Active 257 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $264,900 Active 256 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $264,900 Active 255 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $264,900 Active 254 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $264,900 Active 253 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $264,900 Active 252 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $264,900 Active 251 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $264,900 Active 250 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $264,900 Active 249 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $264,900 Active 248 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $264,900 Active 247 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $264,900 Active 246 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $264,900 Active 245 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $264,900 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,900 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,900 Active 242 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,900 Active 241 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 240 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 239 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,900 Active 238 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 237 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,900 Active 236 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 235 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 232 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 231 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $264,900 Active 230 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $264,900 Active 228 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,819 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,819 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,110
• − Property taxes: −$3,819
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$7,328
• Taxable loss: −$5,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,920–$23,760 screening

This move-in ready townhome is in good condition with minimal updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior ambiance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary South Effingham Elementary School B+ GA #76/1,228 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $269,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $269,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $274,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $275,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $274,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $275,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Listed $274,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $280,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $285,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $286,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-24 Listed $298,120 Zillow
• 2024-10-20 Listed $280,900 Hive MLS