1187 Burlingham Rd · Pine Bush, NY 12566

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 486 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1935 7,550 sqft lot $329/sqft · 31% below area Est $231k · 31% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

Key facts

• 7,550 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 222 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.0% in Pine Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.65%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,984
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -30.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Sunset Trl	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	520 (+7%)	24mo	$132,500	$255	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $77,395
• Equity at exit: $122,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $216,357
• Equity at exit: $242,649

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $219	+0% $173	+5% $128	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $111	+0% $173	+5% $235	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $214	base $173	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $160,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 205 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 204 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $170,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

18. 2026-03-27
    price $180,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

19. 2026-03-23
    price $180,001 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

20. 2025-12-01
    price $180,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

21. 2025-11-08
    listed $200,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

22. 2025-11-03
    historical $200,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Cozy home in a highly desirable location! This charming property is ready for a little TLC and offers excellent potential. Featuring a welcoming front porch, living room, kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom with a stand-up shower, this home is a great opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor. With ownership costs potentially lower than rent, this is your chance to stop renting and start building equity. Conveniently located just minutes (approximately 5 miles) from major highways, shopping, and dining. Don’t miss the opportunity to own an affordable home in the Hudson Valley and make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pine Bush

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #8470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $170,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $180,001 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Listed $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Coming Soon $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,928 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.