1710 E Johnston Ave · Kingsville, TX 78363

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1964 7,118 sqft lot $82/sqft · 13% below area Est $143k · 13% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great floor plan, both formal living room, dining room, living room, inside utility room. Need some work being sold as is where is. Estate sale. Ready to sell.

Key facts

• 7,118 sq ft lot
• Built 1964
• Listed 242 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.92%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,999
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -12.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1007 S 21st St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+2%)	1mo	$163,900	$105	76
1013 S 21st St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$111	75
1525 E Warren Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	7mo	$229,000	$159	68
1773 Paraiso Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-2%)	6mo	$279,900	$188	66
1760 Paraiso Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+5%)	1mo	$322,800	$201	66
809 S 24th St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-7%)	9mo	$199,000	$141	65
829 Inez St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (-12%)	1mo	$185,000	$138	64
1482 Virginia Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-4%)	2mo	$282,000	$192	59
1872 The Park Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (+6%)	7mo	$299,900	$186	58
1410 Lawndale Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (+4%)	3mo	$129,900	$82	49
1215 E Fordyce Ave E	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-12%)	6mo	$159,900	$120	48
1513 Parker St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (+12%)	2mo	$220,000	$129	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $21,877
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $101,408
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,053/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $558	+0% $523	+5% $487	+10% $452
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $444	+0% $523	+5% $601	+10% $680
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $555	base $523	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
915 S 23rd St Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,900	$1.11	14d	1	0.26mi
1342 Virginia Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,500	$1.42	21d	1	0.51mi
1107 E Kenedy Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,300	$1.51	21d	1	0.59mi
908 E Doddridge Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.76mi
710 E C Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $125,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 224 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 223 DOM
18. 2026-01-17
    price $150,000 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Great floor plan, both formal living room, dining room, living room, inside utility room. Need some work being sold as is where is. Estate sale. Ready to sell.

19. 2025-10-15
    listed $175,000 Active 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Great floor plan, both formal living room, dining room, living room, inside utility room. Need some work being sold as is where is. Estate sale. Ready to sell.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,053 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,053
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $5,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,308
• Composite: 14.5/100
• National rank: #9425
• State rank: #800 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #7787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsville, TX
• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• City population: 28,920
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $150,000 CBMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $175,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,053 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.