2927 N 40th St · Milwaukee, WI 53210

$164,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1916 4,791 sqft lot Est $178k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors: Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Great investment Tenant occupied. 24 hour notice please! Tenants lease runs through to end of January 2022.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Natural woodwork
• Built-in bookshelves

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LIVING ROOM FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Street Elementary (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #968 of 1,041 statewide, top 98%, 280 students, 94% FRL); Whs Information Technology (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #467 of 483 statewide, top 100%, 417 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,279 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,555
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2804 N 44th St	0.29mi	4/1.5	2,110 (+6%)	2mo	$125,000	$59	75
2915 N 38th St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,767 (-11%)	2mo	$160,000	$91	72
4233 W Sieben Pl	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,974 (-1%)	1mo	$175,000	$89	71
2956 N 39th St	0.10mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-9%)	2mo	$206,000	$114	71
2804 N 38th St	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-10%)	4mo	$196,000	$109	63
2529 N 46th St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,059 (+3%)	3mo	$204,000	$99	60
3328 N 37th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,943 (-3%)	4mo	$120,000	$62	59
3215 N 47th St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,840 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$109	53
2424 N 44th St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-9%)	3mo	$40,000	$22	49
3236 N 40th St	0.39mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,258 (+13%)	4mo	$200,000	$89	49
2822 N 34th St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,263 (+13%)	4mo	$176,000	$78	48
3444 N 41st St	0.69mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,698 (-15%)	3mo	$145,000	$85	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,669
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,168
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53210

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,543 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,150/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $153	+0% $106	+5% $59	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $45	+0% $106	+5% $167	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $148	base $106	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3122 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,495	$1.13	6d	1	0.27mi
3123 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	25d	1	0.27mi
2713 N 44th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,350	$0.93	45d	1	0.36mi
2976 N 49th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,300	$0.76	19d	1	0.54mi
2629 N 50th St Unit Upper Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,375	$1.09	5d	1	0.73mi
2870 N 29th St #2872 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	0.74mi
3155 N 52nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	45d	1	0.81mi
2409 N 49th St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,248	$0.93	45d	1	0.86mi
2809 W Clarke St Unit 12811 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	19d	1	0.87mi
2438 N 51st St Unit 2 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	25d	1	0.90mi
2704 W Concordia Ave Unit Na Milwaukee, WI	5.0	2.0	1856	$2,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.98mi
2432 N 28th St Milwaukee, WI	5.0	1.5	1876	$1,600	$0.85	45d	1	0.99mi
2137 N 47th St Milwaukee, WI	5.0	2.0	1723	$1,850	$1.07	16d	1	1.06mi
2001 N 38th St #2003 Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1326	$950	$0.72	4d	1	1.07mi
3925 N 42nd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,675	$1.29	45d	1	1.15mi
2308 W Clarke St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	2.0	1545	$1,750	$1.13	25d	1	1.20mi
1639 N 33rd St Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1424	$950	$0.67	25d	1	1.42mi
2106A W Keefe Ave Unit 2106 Lower Milwaukee, WI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $164,900
3. 2026-03-25
   listed $174,900 Active
4. 2024-08-27
   soldstatus $1,227,300
5. 2021-06-29
   soldstatus $85,000
6. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $85,000 Sold 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Investors: Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Great investment Tenant occupied. 24 hour notice please! Tenants lease runs through to end of January 2022.

7. 2021-06-05
   status Pending 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Investors: Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Great investment Tenant occupied. 24 hour notice please! Tenants lease runs through to end of January 2022.

8. 2021-06-02
   listed $89,000 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Investors: Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Great investment Tenant occupied. 24 hour notice please! Tenants lease runs through to end of January 2022.

9. 2020-08-02
   historical 237-char remark

   Show marketing remark (237 chars)

   Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Why rent when you can own. .. or make this a great investment opportunity!

10. 2020-02-03
    listed $100,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Welcome home to this large, four bedroom one and a half bathroom bungalow in the Sherman Park area. Lots of old world charm, natural woodwork and hardwood floors. Why rent when you can own. .. or make this a great investment opportunity!

11. 2017-04-07
    historical
12. 2017-02-03
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2015-04-17
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold
14. 2015-04-05
    status Pending
15. 2015-04-01
    historical Contingent
16. 2015-03-29
    status Active
17. 2015-02-23
    status Pending
18. 2015-01-27
    price $24,900
19. 2015-01-06
    status Active
20. 2015-01-06
    historical
21. 2014-12-27
    price $35,500
22. 2014-11-28
    price $37,500
23. 2014-10-25
    listed $42,500 Active
24. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$38/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,150
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 23,922
• Household income: $48,217
• Rent vs Own: 60.4% rent · 39.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1730.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.77%
• Current HPI: 280.0133
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+449.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — METROMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $164,900 METROMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $174,900 METROMLS
• 2024-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,227,300 Public Records
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) $85,000 METROMLS
• 2021-06-05 Pending — METROMLS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $89,000 METROMLS
• 2020-08-02 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2020-02-03 Listed $100,000 METROMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2017-02-03 Listed $85,000 METROMLS
• 2015-04-17 Sold (MLS) $20,000 METROMLS
• 2015-04-05 Pending — METROMLS
• 2015-04-01 Contingent — METROMLS
• 2015-03-29 Relisted — METROMLS
• 2015-02-23 Pending — METROMLS
• 2015-01-27 Price Changed $24,900 METROMLS
• 2015-01-06 Relisted — METROMLS
• 2015-01-06 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2014-12-27 Price Changed $35,500 METROMLS
• 2014-11-28 Price Changed $37,500 METROMLS
• 2014-10-25 Listed $42,500 METROMLS
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,150 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.