16241 Bergara Bend Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$233,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 2-car garage $115/sqft · 14% below area Est $272k · 14% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Cottage "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation J3 in Timbers Edge! This two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $211,685 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,990
• List price: $233,490
• Delta: -14.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16221 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$270,990	$133	97
16511 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-4%)	4mo	$288,990	$147	91
16523 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-4%)	2mo	$242,990	$123	80
16526 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	3mo	$271,990	$155	72
16546 Timberwolf Trl	0.27mi	4/3.0	1,868 (-8%)	1mo	$263,990	$141	71
16502 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	4mo	$273,990	$156	71
16895 Buckwood Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	3mo	$314,990	$176	68
20728 Central Concave Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,173 (+7%)	4mo	$297,990	$137	68
16566 Timberwolf Trl	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-14%)	3mo	$309,990	$177	66
16620 Treasure Creek Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	1mo	$236,990	$135	62
21714 Southern Valley Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	2mo	$294,990	$156	60
21718 Southern Valley Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,226 (+9%)	2mo	$324,990	$146	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,023
• Equity at exit: $34,814

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,648
• Equity at exit: $20,188

Cash invested: $65,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 126 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,495 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,224
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$292 /mo · $3,502/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $214,203

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-53	+0% $-133	+5% $-214	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-217	+0% $-133	+5% $-50	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-74	base $-133	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,372
• Closing costs: $7,005
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21500 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$1,925	$0.89	29d	1	0.52mi
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	31d	1	0.54mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	61d	1	0.64mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.71mi
21427 Hawthorn Prairie Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,095	$0.83	11d	1	0.72mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	120d	1	0.77mi
21655 Cottage Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,200	$1.05	7d	1	0.88mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,190	$1.22	20d	60	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property under construction (new construction)Single-family design with living area approximately 2,039Slab foundationBuilt in 2025
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2025New construction by Lennar
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (16 x 12)Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12 x 12; 12 x 12; 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Game room on the second floor (16 x 20)Family room on the first floor (16 x 9)Formal dining room on the first floor (12 x 10)

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $233,490 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $233,490 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $233,490 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $233,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,079
• − Property taxes: −$3,502
• − Insurance: −$1,167
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,792
• Taxable loss: −$5,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly built home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes, ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves living space and adds to the home's appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 713,896 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property under construction (new construction)Single-family design with living area approximately 2,039Slab foundationBuilt in 2025
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2025New construction by Lennar
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (16 x 12)Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12 x 12; 12 x 12; 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Game room on the second floor (16 x 20)Family room on the first floor (16 x 9)Formal dining room on the first floor (12 x 10)

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $233,490 HARMLS