37227 Grassy Hill Ln · Dade City, FL 33525

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2005 1,586 sqft lot Est $248k · 32% under $119/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. With a 620 credit score, this property qualifies for a zero-down USDA loan. The roof and water heater have been replaced within the past 3 years. No rental restrictions, gives you the option to buy your next rental or your next home to live in! The charming and inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 1-car garage. This cozy 1212 sq ft home boasts a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. The well-appointed kitchen features newer cabinets and granite counters with modern appliances and ample storage space, making meal preparation a breeze. The bright, airy bedrooms offer plenty of natural

Key facts

• 1,586 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot size about 0.04 acres; No waterfront; Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoned RES
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $119 (Vanguard Management/Alice Kuhn); Association fee required; Pets allowed with possible breed restrictions; cats and dogs OK; No community amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,212 square feet
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $169,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$248,460) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $170k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,460
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37146 Grassy Hill Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (0%)	21mo	$160,000	$132	74
37236 Poinsettia Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+8%)	5mo	$135,000	$104	69
37722 Granada Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	9mo	$260,000	$227	61
36547 Jackson Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,102 (-9%)	3mo	$232,000	$211	51
37023 Florida Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+7%)	22mo	$265,000	$205	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,578
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $26,811
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,900/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37228 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,750	$1.44	3d	1	0.03mi
37215 Grassy Hill Ln Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	24d	1	0.03mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	24d	1	0.09mi
37132 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234477P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,594	$2.98	2d	1	0.09mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,500	$2.89	24d	1	0.09mi
37135 Grassy Hill Ln Unit 1234475P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,535	$2.93	2d	1	0.09mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	16d	1	0.73mi
37011 Bear Branch Dr Dade City, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1730	$1,837	$1.06	1d	16	0.86mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	12d	1	0.92mi
37015 Waldo Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1480	$3,750	$2.53	24d	1	0.99mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,391	$2.79	4d	1	1.09mi
13917 2nd St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	24d	1	1.17mi
13253 Waterford Castle Dr Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,749	$1.47	2d	1	1.22mi
37540 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit A Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	24d	1	1.31mi
37850 Wdcf Dr Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,375	$1.77	4d	1	1.32mi
37850 Wdcf Dr Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,375	$1.77	14d	1	1.32mi
38210 Williams Aire St Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	24d	1	1.36mi
11916 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	4d	1	1.38mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	24d	1	1.39mi
11908 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,520	$1.10	17d	1	1.39mi
11898 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,369	$0.99	14d	1	1.40mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	17d	1	1.41mi
11890 Sylvia St Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	24d	1	1.41mi
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,761	$1.69	21d	1	1.46mi
38714 Island Ave Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	864	$1,695	$1.96	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-04-20
   listed $169,900 Active
2. 2025-12-31
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-12-16
   price $169,900
5. 2025-11-10
   price $179,900
6. 2025-11-07
   status Active
7. 2025-11-07
   price $184,900
8. 2025-11-06
   listed $185,000 Active
9. 2025-10-01
   price $185,000
10. 2025-07-11
    price $190,000
11. 2025-07-07
    listed $195,000 Active
12. 2025-05-14
    historical $1,625
13. 2025-05-14
    listed $1,625
14. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,750
15. 2024-01-27
    listed $1,750
16. 2017-07-06
    historical
17. 2017-06-06
    status Active
18. 2017-05-16
    status Pending
19. 2017-05-10
    historical
20. 2017-04-30
    status Active
21. 2017-04-25
    status Pending
22. 2017-04-21
    listed $65,000 Active
23. 2014-09-02
    soldstatus $48,403 Sold
24. 2014-08-27
    status Pending
25. 2014-08-05
    price $49,900
26. 2014-07-14
    listed $55,000 Active
27. 2012-01-26
    soldstatus $26,500
28. 2010-09-28
    listed $35,500
29. 2007-10-24
    listed $155,000
30. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus $134,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 33% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,900
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $2,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$497
• After-tax cash flow: $3,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+25.9% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Rental Removed $1,625 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,625 STELLARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2024-01-27 Listed for Rent $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2017-07-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-21 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-02 Sold (MLS) $48,403 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-05 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-14 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-26 Sold (MLS) $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-28 Listed $35,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-24 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,900 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.