16151 Coyridge Ln · Houston, TX 77053

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1982 6,503 sqft lot Est $180k · 28% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,503 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ridgegate Community HOA with an annual fee of $250

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Cleared lot in a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Living and dining room; Pantry; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgegate El (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 449 students, 98% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 35% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-32 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,920
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5934 Beaconridge Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,070 (+3%)	0mo	$189,900	$177	82
16146 Corsair Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	17mo	$165,000	$159	73
16010 Diamond Ridge Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (+1%)	10mo	$193,650	$184	64
15622 Corsair Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-1%)	10mo	$249,990	$244	57
5734 Gineridge Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,070 (+3%)	19mo	$160,000	$150	56
6033 Muskingum Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,102 (+6%)	13mo	$170,000	$154	49
16211 Beck Ridge Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (-11%)	12mo	$155,000	$167	42
16242 Diamond Ridge Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (-11%)	16mo	$160,000	$173	42
7015 Trigate Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,179 (+13%)	7mo	$219,999	$187	41
5705 Mackinaw St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,114 (+7%)	14mo	$158,999	$143	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,679
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $17,801
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77053

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,335/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $374	+0% $337	+5% $300	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $200	-5% $268	+0% $337	+5% $406	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $370	base $337	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	26d	1	0.09mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16465 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,524	$1.13	45d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,513	$1.12	12d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,292	$1.26	7d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,327	$1.29	12d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,473	$1.09	0d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,276	$1.24	0d	1	0.50mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16489 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,317	$1.28	45d	1	0.50mi
16603 Sentinel Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,799	$1.39	18d	1	0.74mi
5030 Shadowridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	1.12mi
5030 Ridgecreek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,659	$1.19	4d	1	1.17mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.37mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	1.41mi
15810 Boonridge Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,750	$1.43	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,335 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,335 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,335
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$529
• After-tax cash flow: $3,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,198
• Household income: $66,510
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 41% Two or more races 22% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.09%
• Current HPI: 266.6541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2017-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,335 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.