2811 Southern Breeze · Hondo, TX 78861

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1993 9,844 sqft lot $52/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are an investor looking to expand your rental portfolio, this property at 2811 Southern Breeze offers incredible potential in the heart of Hondo, Texas. The manufactured home features a functional 1,056 square foot layout and is situated on a generous 0.23-acre lot in the established Highland Park and Lower Thirty neighborhood. While the home needs some work and is being sold as-is, it provides a solid foundation for a complete refresh and could easily be transformed into a high-demand rental or a cozy starter home. The expansive, level lot offers plenty of room for outdoor improvements, a storage shed, or additional landscaping to boost curb appeal, all while remaining within the Hondo Independent School District and a manageable commute to San Antonio.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Storage shed
• Outdoor improvements

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• OUTDOOR IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 2.5% in Hondo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#872 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,959 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.64%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,011
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -69.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $29,200
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $74,600
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78861

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $527

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 14th St Unit 14 Hondo, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,195	$1.29	43d	1	0.96mi
502 22nd St Hondo, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $54,900 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    If you are an investor looking to expand your rental portfolio, this property at 2811 Southern Breeze offers incredible potential in the heart of Hondo, Texas. The manufactured home features a functional 1,056 square foot layout and is situated on a generous 0.23-acre lot in the established Highland Park and Lower Thirty neighborhood. While the home needs some work and is being sold as-is, it provides a solid foundation for a complete refresh and could easily be transformed into a high-demand rental or a cozy starter home. The expansive, level lot offers plenty of room for outdoor improvements, a storage shed, or additional landscaping to boost curb appeal, all while remaining within the Hondo Independent School District and a manageable commute to San Antonio.

16. 2026-03-19
    listed $59,000 New 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    If you are an investor looking to expand your rental portfolio, this property at 2811 Southern Breeze offers incredible potential in the heart of Hondo, Texas. The manufactured home features a functional 1,056 square foot layout and is situated on a generous 0.23-acre lot in the established Highland Park and Lower Thirty neighborhood. While the home needs some work and is being sold as-is, it provides a solid foundation for a complete refresh and could easily be transformed into a high-demand rental or a cozy starter home. The expansive, level lot offers plenty of room for outdoor improvements, a storage shed, or additional landscaping to boost curb appeal, all while remaining within the Hondo Independent School District and a manageable commute to San Antonio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $6,723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $5,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hondo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #15726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hondo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,715

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 209.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $54,900 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Listed $59,000 LERA

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.