12 Barton Flats Rd · Big Bear Lake, CA 92305

$187,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · Other public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1926 $255/sqft · 163% above area Est $140k · 34% over $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time the moment you enter the forest driveway and spot this storybook charmer just minutes away from Jenks Lake. This 3 Bed 3 Bath w Loft Rustic Recreational Cabin will let you live like you’re off-grid without actually being off-grid, the large kitchen and Master suite are very inviting and the cozy fireplace warms you up on those cold winter nights, located just a short drive-up Highway 38 close to the high Desert, Big Bear Lake and surrounding cities. Crystal-clear water sourced from the year-round stream is just steps away. The huge, enclosed back deck is made for morning coffee while deer wander past, and this sunny outdoor space is great for entertaining family and making memories, fall asleep to the gentle sounds from the stream every single night. Whether you’re searching for a legacy family cabin, an artist/writer’s retreat, or the most soul-soothing retreat in the mountains, this is the one people write books about!!

Key facts

• Sunny outdoor space
• Large kitchen
• Enclosed back deck

Tags

• RUSTIC RECREATIONAL CABIN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• YEAR-ROUND STREAM
• ENCLOSED BACK DECK
• SUNNY OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $62k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.03%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,383
• List price: $187,500
• Delta: 33.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $53,617
• Equity at exit: $89,164

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $148,400
• Equity at exit: $141,312

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92305

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,109/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,500 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,500 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,500 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,500 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,500 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,500 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,500 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,500 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $187,500 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $225,000 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Step back in time the moment you enter the forest driveway and spot this storybook charmer just minutes away from Jenks Lake. This 3 Bed 3 Bath w Loft Rustic Recreational Cabin will let you live like you’re off-grid without actually being off-grid, the large kitchen and Master suite are very inviting and the cozy fireplace warms you up on those cold winter nights, located just a short drive-up Highway 38 close to the high Desert, Big Bear Lake and surrounding cities. Crystal-clear water sourced from the year-round stream is just steps away. The huge, enclosed back deck is made for morning coffee while deer wander past, and this sunny outdoor space is great for entertaining family and making memories, fall asleep to the gentle sounds from the stream every single night. Whether you’re searching for a legacy family cabin, an artist/writer’s retreat, or the most soul-soothing retreat in the mountains, this is the one people write books about!!

16. 2025-11-24
    listed $249,000 Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Step back in time the moment you enter the forest driveway and spot this storybook charmer just minutes away from Jenks Lake. This 3 Bed 3 Bath w Loft Rustic Recreational Cabin will let you live like you’re off-grid without actually being off-grid, the large kitchen and Master suite are very inviting and the cozy fireplace warms you up on those cold winter nights, located just a short drive-up Highway 38 close to the high Desert, Big Bear Lake and surrounding cities. Crystal-clear water sourced from the year-round stream is just steps away. The huge, enclosed back deck is made for morning coffee while deer wander past, and this sunny outdoor space is great for entertaining family and making memories, fall asleep to the gentle sounds from the stream every single night. Whether you’re searching for a legacy family cabin, an artist/writer’s retreat, or the most soul-soothing retreat in the mountains, this is the one people write books about!!

17. 2024-12-17
    listed Active
18. 2024-06-05
    price $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 13 d/yr ≥81°F today · 34 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$1,109
• − Insurance: −$1,751
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable income: $2,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$513
• After-tax cash flow: $4,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 371

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 21%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 307.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $225,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-11-24 Listed $249,000 MRCAOR
• 2024-12-17 Listed — TheMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $190,000 MRCAOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,109 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.