12947 W Chapala Dr · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$315,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2005 4,400 sqft lot $273/sqft · 17% below area Est $378k · 17% under $237/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-bedroom home in the prestigious guard-gated community of Corte Bella Country Club. This desirable split-bedroom floor plan offers an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the living room, dining, and kitchen--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with newer stainless-steel appliances, an induction cooktop, & the added flexibility of an optional gas hookup. The spacious primary suite features dual sinks, a walk-in shower, & a generous walk-in closet, creating a comfortable private retreat. Enjoy resort-style living in Corte Bella, an active adult community known for its exceptional amenities, including a clubhouse, heated pool & spa, tennis and pickleball courts, on-site restaurant, lots of scenic walking paths, and a vibrant calendar of activities.

Key facts

• Induction cooktop
• Optional gas hookup
• Open concept design

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• INDUCTION COOKTOP
• OPTIONAL GAS HOOKUP
• WALK IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Sun City West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,074/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 691% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $262k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.89%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,486
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12930 W Chapala Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$303	91
22417 N Los Gatos Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	2mo	$337,000	$292	91
12948 W EL Sueno Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	13mo	$300,000	$260	84
22504 N San Ramon Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	11mo	$475,000	$412	84
22524 N San Ramon Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	12mo	$468,000	$406	83
12934 W Chapala Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	4mo	$365,000	$284	72
12945 W EL Sueno Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	4mo	$355,000	$277	71
12937 W EL Sueno Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	10mo	$420,000	$327	66
12941 W EL Sueno Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	15mo	$390,000	$304	62
22520 N San Ramon Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	16mo	$480,000	$374	62
22454 N San Ramon Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	15mo	$450,000	$351	62
22407 N San Ramon Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	20mo	$390,000	$304	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,467
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $54,239
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,344/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$237
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,804

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13452 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1378	$3,200	$2.32	1d	1	0.64mi
22816 N Las Positas Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	1d	1	0.66mi
13758 W Sola Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1351	$3,950	$2.92	1d	1	1.06mi
11980 W Dos Rios Dr Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,850	$1.41	43d	1	1.41mi
14113 W Robertson Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1410	$3,800	$2.70	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $237 · $2,844/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $335,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    2-bedroom home in the prestigious guard-gated community of Corte Bella Country Club. This desirable split-bedroom floor plan offers an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the living room, dining, and kitchen--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with newer stainless-steel appliances, an induction cooktop, & the added flexibility of an optional gas hookup. The spacious primary suite features dual sinks, a walk-in shower, & a generous walk-in closet, creating a comfortable private retreat. Enjoy resort-style living in Corte Bella, an active adult community known for its exceptional amenities, including a clubhouse, heated pool & spa, tennis and pickleball courts, on-site restaurant, lots of scenic walking paths, and a vibrant calendar of activities.

16. 2026-04-07
    listed $345,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    2-bedroom home in the prestigious guard-gated community of Corte Bella Country Club. This desirable split-bedroom floor plan offers an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the living room, dining, and kitchen--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with newer stainless-steel appliances, an induction cooktop, & the added flexibility of an optional gas hookup. The spacious primary suite features dual sinks, a walk-in shower, & a generous walk-in closet, creating a comfortable private retreat. Enjoy resort-style living in Corte Bella, an active adult community known for its exceptional amenities, including a clubhouse, heated pool & spa, tennis and pickleball courts, on-site restaurant, lots of scenic walking paths, and a vibrant calendar of activities.

17. 2025-05-19
    historical $1,750
18. 2025-05-09
    listed $1,750
19. 2025-05-07
    historical
20. 2025-03-29
    price $350,000
21. 2025-03-06
    price $365,000
22. 2025-02-05
    price $375,000
23. 2025-01-09
    listed $399,990 Active
24. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $262,000 Closed
25. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $262,000
26. 2020-09-20
    status Pending
27. 2020-09-18
    status Active
28. 2020-09-16
    status Pending
29. 2020-09-11
    listed $262,500 Active
30. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
31. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $215,000
32. 2017-12-17
    status Pending
33. 2017-11-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
34. 2017-11-19
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,344 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,344
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,951
• − Management: −$2,951
• − HOA: −$2,844
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $3,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+52.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $335,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $345,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Rental Removed $1,750 REDFIN
• 2025-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,750 REDFIN
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $375,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $399,990 ARMLS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $262,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $262,000 ARMLS
• 2020-09-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-09-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-09-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-09-11 Listed $262,500 ARMLS
• 2017-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-29 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2017-12-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-11-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-11-19 Listed $220,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,344 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.