1215 Oak St · Mission, TX 78572

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1969 0.31 ac lot Est $279k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next investment opportunity in Mission, 3 bedrooms, 3bath home features a 1 car garage conveniently located on the side of the property. Situated in the heart of Mission, this home offers easy access to shopping centers, schools, and local amenities. With great potential for rental income or a renovation project, this property is ideal for investors looking to add to their portfolio. Don’t miss out on this excellent opportunity!

Key facts

• 1 car garage
• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• 1 CAR GARAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 1-car garage (garage faces front); 2-car carport; 3 covered spaces
• Utilities: City sewer
• Home design: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Mature trees; Patio with patio slab; Fencing (other); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Countertops (other); No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room / laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($222/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 651 students, 71% FRL); Mission J H (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 680 students, 78% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $175k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1403 Melinda Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-1%)	4mo	$280,000	$145	75
916 Country Club Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,816 (-6%)	2mo	$175,000	$96	72
1102 Fairway Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,886 (-3%)	9mo	$259,900	$138	68
1511 Oak Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-8%)	3mo	$273,900	$153	63
1509 Oak Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-9%)	2mo	$254,500	$144	62
1101 Country Club Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,153 (+11%)	12mo	$255,000	$118	53
902 Ramirez St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,788 (-8%)	2mo	$323,000	$181	52
1004 N Francisco Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (+7%)	3mo	$249,000	$120	51
1714 Iowa St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,855 (-4%)	15mo	$175,000	$94	49
1411 Dons Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,672 (-14%)	12mo	$250,000	$150	48
1304 E 22nd St	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,014 (+4%)	16mo	$297,000	$147	46
1709 School Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,184 (+13%)	13mo	$277,000	$127	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-30,681
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-38,959
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $68	+0% $18	+5% $-31	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-52	+0% $18	+5% $89	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $63	base $18	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	15d	1	0.42mi
1511 Evergreen Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	0.46mi
1827 Highland Park Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	45d	1	0.51mi
2216 Robyn Ln Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$2,000	$0.98	22d	1	0.73mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	15d	1	0.75mi
1801 Crown Pointe Blvd Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,650	$1.03	15d	1	0.95mi
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	45d	1	1.09mi
502 Thornwood St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	15d	1	1.28mi
1822 Sunset Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1631	$1,850	$1.13	15d	1	1.32mi
2200 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	1.35mi
2007 Cassandra St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1422	$2,500	$1.76	15d	1	1.36mi
2203 E 19th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.37mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	24d	1	1.37mi
1923 Sunset Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1499	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	1.37mi
1927 Sunset Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$1,900	$1.04	45d	1	1.39mi
2212 Lilly Cove Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	1950	$1,750	$0.90	45d	1	1.40mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	45d	1	1.40mi
813 Travis St #207 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,600	$1.21	24d	1	1.41mi
813 Travis St #408 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,800	$1.46	24d	1	1.41mi
2201 E 21st St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1529	$1,850	$1.21	15d	1	1.41mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	15d	1	1.46mi
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical Option
3. 2026-04-12
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2025-09-29
   price $209,000
5. 2025-07-19
   price $220,000
6. 2025-05-27
   price $240,000
7. 2025-05-08
   listed $265,000 Active
8. 1993-11-18
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+201.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $209,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $220,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $240,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $265,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1993-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,785 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.