1820 N Thornton Rd #943 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$238,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Manufactured · 346 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Woodlands is a split bedroom floorplan, with patio access off of kitchen. This Cavco Porch Front Home comes with 4 upgraded stainless-steel appliances, plus garbage disposal and is washer / dryer ready. Interior features 9' flat ceilings, Ceiling Fan ready in living area & bedrooms, recessed and pendant lighting in kitchen, Soft Close Denali Hardwood cabinet doors & drawers, and vinyl plank flooring throughout. Rear kitchen with Slider Door access to patio. Exterior of home comes with covered 7' front porch and an 18' cement drive and 18' awning. Shed size of 12' by 14' with conduit for water loop. Landscape package with drip system. Gutters on non-awning side. Heat Pump. Te

Key facts

• 9 flat ceilings
• Ceiling fan ready
• Washer dryer ready

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOORPLAN
• PATIO ACCESS OFF OF KITCHEN
• WASHER DRYER READY
• 9 FLAT CEILINGS
• CEILING FAN READY
• RECESSED LIGHTING IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $238,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central air conditioning; Heat pump
• Home design: Spec inventory; Plan name: The Woodlands; Address: 1820 N Thornton Rd #943, Casa Grande AZ 85122
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1366

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-476/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,959 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 N Thornton Rd #908	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+11%)	3mo	$205,000	$135	73
1837 N Thornton Rd #77	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-5%)	5mo	$199,900	$154	70
1869 N Rim Rock Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+11%)	6mo	$260,000	$171	70
1637 N Sandalwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-2%)	6mo	$198,500	$148	60
2054 N Thornton Rd #164	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+7%)	4mo	$123,500	$85	59
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-0%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	58
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (-3%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	52
2054 N Thornton Rd #186	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+13%)	1mo	$105,000	$68	51
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	50
450 W Sunwest Dr #183	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-10%)	10mo	$80,000	$65	44
450 W Sunwest Dr #278	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-11%)	12mo	$88,000	$72	39
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+15%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,875
• Equity at exit: $35,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,970
• Equity at exit: $20,656

Cash invested: $66,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,584/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $233,154

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $43	+0% $-40	+5% $-122	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-120	+0% $-40	+5% $41	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $21	base $-40	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,725
• Closing costs: $7,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	25d	1	0.24mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	5d	1	0.40mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	25d	1	0.43mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	25d	1	0.62mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	25d	1	0.63mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	15d	1	0.68mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	0.76mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	5d	1	0.85mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	1.02mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	25d	1	1.04mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	25d	1	1.13mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.38mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	1.49mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.49mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	22d	1	1.49mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,900 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,900 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,900 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,900 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,900 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,900 Active 338 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,900 Active 337 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,900 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,900 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,900 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,900 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,900 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,900 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,900 Active 326 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,900 Active 325 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,382
• − Property taxes: −$3,584
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$6,950
• Taxable loss: −$4,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B