1025 Persimmon Rd · Lake Lafayette, MO 64076

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1974 2.06 ac lot $69/sqft · 69% below area $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There is a little over 2 acres which lie fairly level. It would be an excellent place to build a nice home. Currently there is a double wide manufacture home which will need a little updating and a nice shed/shop. There is furniture in the home that stays with the home.

Key facts

• Nice shed shop
• 2.06 acre lot
• Listed 121 days

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NICE SHED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#907 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.14%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,375
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -55.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $30,062
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $81,732
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64076

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $730	-5% $702	+0% $675	+5% $647	+10% $619
Rent	-10% $547	-5% $611	+0% $675	+5% $739	+10% $802
Rate	-1.0pp $715	-0.5pp $695	base $675	+0.5pp $654	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $80,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-02-13
    listed $80,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    There is a little over 2 acres which lie fairly level. It would be an excellent place to build a nice home. Currently there is a double wide manufacture home which will need a little updating and a nice shed/shop. There is furniture in the home that stays with the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $6,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2923100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,736
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4932
• State rank: #123 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake Lafayette

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #25659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Lafayette, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Danish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.23%
• Current HPI: 255.8581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $80,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $150 · -45.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.