82 Donna Dr · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$629,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1991 0.60 ac lot $437/sqft · 17% below area Est $761k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spectacular Sprawling, Perfectly Located 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch. Light And Bright Open Floorplan With Vaulted Ceilings And Private Parklike Property. EIK With Formal Dinning Area. Sliding Door Leading To Property Lovers Paradise. Main Level Laundry/Mudroom. Two Car Garage Provides Ample Space For Parking & Storage. Sprawling Semi Finished Basement For Endless Possibilities. New Roof & Siding. Close To Local Beaches, Golf Club, Vinyards, Farms, Hamptons, Shopping Center, Outlets & Transportation To NYC. This Beautiful Home Is Affordable Luxury Living In North Fork Wine Country. Do Not Miss This Great Opportunity.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $629k).
• Recommended offer: $610k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $629k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $610,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $760,763
• List price: $629,000
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Jakes Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+4%)	10mo	$695,000	$467	59
54 Southfield Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-6%)	9mo	$639,000	$473	58
166 Williams Way S	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,652 (+15%)	10mo	$760,000	$460	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $183,453
• Equity at exit: $292,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $504,139
• Equity at exit: $457,425

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$812 /mo · $9,745/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $1,552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,535

Max offer price $629,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   Spectacular Sprawling, Perfectly Located 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch. Light And Bright Open Floorplan With Vaulted Ceilings And Private Parklike Property. EIK With Formal Dinning Area. Sliding Door Leading To Property Lovers Paradise. Main Level Laundry/Mudroom. Two Car Garage Provides Ample Space For Parking & Storage. Sprawling Semi Finished Basement For Endless Possibilities. New Roof & Siding. Close To Local Beaches, Golf Club, Vinyards, Farms, Hamptons, Shopping Center, Outlets & Transportation To NYC. This Beautiful Home Is Affordable Luxury Living In North Fork Wine Country. Do Not Miss This Great Opportunity.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $629,000 Active 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   Spectacular Sprawling, Perfectly Located 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch. Light And Bright Open Floorplan With Vaulted Ceilings And Private Parklike Property. EIK With Formal Dinning Area. Sliding Door Leading To Property Lovers Paradise. Main Level Laundry/Mudroom. Two Car Garage Provides Ample Space For Parking & Storage. Sprawling Semi Finished Basement For Endless Possibilities. New Roof & Siding. Close To Local Beaches, Golf Club, Vinyards, Farms, Hamptons, Shopping Center, Outlets & Transportation To NYC. This Beautiful Home Is Affordable Luxury Living In North Fork Wine Country. Do Not Miss This Great Opportunity.

3. 2026-04-06
   historical $629,000 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   Spectacular Sprawling, Perfectly Located 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Ranch. Light And Bright Open Floorplan With Vaulted Ceilings And Private Parklike Property. EIK With Formal Dinning Area. Sliding Door Leading To Property Lovers Paradise. Main Level Laundry/Mudroom. Two Car Garage Provides Ample Space For Parking & Storage. Sprawling Semi Finished Basement For Endless Possibilities. New Roof & Siding. Close To Local Beaches, Golf Club, Vinyards, Farms, Hamptons, Shopping Center, Outlets & Transportation To NYC. This Beautiful Home Is Affordable Luxury Living In North Fork Wine Country. Do Not Miss This Great Opportunity.

4. 1992-05-13
   soldstatus $143,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,745 · $812/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,187 · $849/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$9,745
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable income: $9,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,203
• After-tax cash flow: $16,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+339.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,745 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.