40471 Cross Creek Ave · Prairieville, LA 70737

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2006 6,011 sqft lot Est $250k · at est. $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an open-concept floor plan. The exterior offers a long driveway, and a carport for ample parking. The kitchen features extensive cabinet storage. The primary bedroom features a private, fully tiled en-suite bathroom. A second full bathroom includes a bathtub and standard fixtures. The property is situated in close proximity to area schools, parks, and shopping centers, including a grocery store.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2006

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• EXTENSIVE CABINET STORAGE
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Cross Creek subdivision; directions available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $140 (about $11.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 2 carport spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,407 sq ft
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Lot in Cross Creek subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 55 x 110

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-123/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Primary School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #125 of 646 statewide, top 20%, 474 students, 55% FRL); Central Middle School (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D+, #37 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 747 students, 50% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,857 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,446
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40462 Cross Creek Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-0%)	3mo	$249,900	$178	96
40489 Cross Creek Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	7mo	$250,000	$178	92
40435 Cross Ridge Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+1%)	3mo	$253,000	$178	92
40445 Fox Run Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+1%)	2mo	$255,000	$179	92
40414 Fox Run Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+3%)	2mo	$262,000	$181	88
40428 Fox Run Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-1%)	7mo	$232,500	$167	87
40363 Creekway Cove Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	4mo	$255,000	$181	85
40330 Coldwater Landing Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-0%)	2mo	$175,000	$125	85
40312 Crestridge Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	83
40445 Sagefield Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-6%)	5mo	$190,000	$144	80
14452 Tanya Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+11%)	3mo	$265,000	$169	64
40167 Trace Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+10%)	7mo	$272,000	$175	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,671
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,285
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,045/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $248,087

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $60	+0% $-10	+5% $-81	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-90	+0% $-10	+5% $69	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $53	base $-10	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40300 Creek Bend Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,000	$1.45	16d	1	0.32mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	25d	1	1.17mi
14039 Young Rd Gonzales, LA	2.0	1.5	1385	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.29mi
14086 Airline Hwy Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,779	$1.52	16d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 445-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,045
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+87.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $249,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-08-21 Contingent — GBRMLS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $225,000 GBRMLS
• 2018-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-05 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2018-02-24 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2018-01-31 Listed $180,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-01-31 Listed $180,000 GBRMLS
• 2014-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-23 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2014-05-04 Listed $168,500 GBRMLS
• 2014-05-04 Listed $168,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2011-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-08 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2010-08-03 Listed $154,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2010-08-03 Listed $154,900 GBRMLS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2007-08-02 Listed $152,900 GBRMLS
• 2007-08-02 Listed $152,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $160,000 GBRMLS
• 2006-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $133,515 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,045 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.