8 Stern Ct · Huntington Station, NY 11746

$649,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1963 6,098 sqft lot Est $819k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Four Bedroom, 2 Full Bath Hi-Ranch located on a cul-de-sac. Updated vinyl siding, roof and windows. Updated deck. New Oil Tank. Wall units in all bedrooms

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $611k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $524k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $524k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Huntington Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#126 in NY, #2,028 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Huntington Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #328 of 590 in NY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 286 students, 57% FRL); J Taylor Finley Middle School (math 25% / reading 44%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 623 students, 58% FRL); Huntington High School (math 91% / reading 92%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,410 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 34% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($165k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $649k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $523,655 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $818,800
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Stern Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,300 (0%)	1mo	$685,000	$298	100
12 Terrace Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,174 (-6%)	7mo	$775,000	$356	80
40 Panorama Dr	0.34mi	4/1.5	2,209 (-4%)	8mo	$805,000	$364	68
214 Crombie St	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,263 (-2%)	12mo	$690,000	$305	63
30 Rancher Pl	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,100 (-9%)	0mo	$1,325,000	$631	60
237 Oakwood Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,135 (-7%)	4mo	$740,000	$347	60
121 Columbia St	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,200 (-4%)	23mo	$450,000	$205	58
19 Skyline Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+4%)	10mo	$950,000	$396	56
24 Royal Oak Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-13%)	12mo	$1,080,000	$540	51
6 Rolling Hills Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,996 (-13%)	16mo	$690,000	$346	49
32 Chestnut St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-13%)	13mo	$950,000	$475	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-110,594
• Equity at exit: $96,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-79,024
• Equity at exit: $56,114

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11746

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$678 /mo · $8,131/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,100
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,508

Max offer price $611,104

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
245 Main St Unit 1 Huntington, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$5,995	$3.75	1d	1	1.35mi
1700 E 5th St Huntington Station, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1277	$5,037	$3.94	1d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $649,000 Active
3. 2026-03-03
   historical $649,000
4. 1992-07-08
   soldstatus $164,000
5. 1982-12-08
   soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,131 · $678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,549 · $796/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,419/yr (+$118/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$8,131
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,027
• − Management: −$5,027
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$13,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,318
• After-tax cash flow: $744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3615090
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $93,547
• Composite: 45.68/100
• National rank: #2578
• State rank: #328 of 590 in NY

Livability — Huntington Station

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #2028

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huntington Station, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,747
• Household income: $164,589
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 627.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -715.60%
• Current HPI: 317.5657
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+753.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Coming Soon $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,131 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.