1300 9th St NW · Watertown, SD 57201

$38,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 1983 $30/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled manufactured home, ready to move into. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, great location with view of the river.

Key facts

• View of the river
• Built 1983
• Listed 129 days

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• VIEW OF THE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.3% vs local median 2.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#11 in SD, #2,681 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Watertown School District 14-4 (town): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #28 of 59 in SD (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Codington County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $266 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Codington County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $33,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.18%
• DSCR: 5.46
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,671
• List price: $38,500
• Delta: -80.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 9th St NW	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	5mo	$55,000	$45	80
1114 4th Ave NW	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-3%)	12mo	$185,000	$149	54
1155 4th St NW	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,123 (-12%)	4mo	$195,000	$174	50
1712 Grant Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	2mo	$349,900	$243	48
610 1/2 4th St NW	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (+5%)	7mo	$125,000	$93	46
1515 5th Ave NW	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (+2%)	23mo	$237,000	$182	39
409 8th St NW	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	12mo	$230,000	$205	36
1181 1st St NW	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (-8%)	13mo	$179,900	$152	34
1167 2nd St NW	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,448 (+13%)	13mo	$269,900	$186	34
1149 4th St NW	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,116 (-13%)	23mo	$200,000	$179	31
1123 2nd St NW	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,446 (+13%)	21mo	$199,000	$138	27
1178 2nd St NW	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,444 (+13%)	19mo	$275,000	$190	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $51,075
• Equity at exit: $5,740

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.97×
• Total profit: $118,268
• Equity at exit: $3,329

Cash invested: $10,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57201

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $95/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $286

Max offer price $38,500

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,625
• Closing costs: $1,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $38,500 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,500 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,500 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,500 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,500 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,500 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $38,500 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,500 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,500 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,500 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $38,500 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,500 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,500 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,500 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,500 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,500 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $38,500 Active 124-char remark

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    Completely remodeled manufactured home, ready to move into. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, great location with view of the river.

18. 2025-09-22
    price $40,500
19. 2025-07-13
    price $42,950
20. 2025-06-24
    listed $49,500 Active
21. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus $26,000
22. 2022-03-26
    soldstatus $26,000
23. 2021-07-13
    listed $35,000
24. 2019-01-30
    soldstatus $30,500
25. 2019-01-28
    soldstatus $30,500
26. 2018-11-14
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $95 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 430.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,157
• − Property taxes: −$95
• − Insurance: −$192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$1,120
• Taxable income: $10,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,592
• After-tax cash flow: $8,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown School District 14-4
• NCES district ID: 4676620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3057
• State rank: #28 of 59 in SD

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #2681

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, SD
• County: Codington County · 26,781 people
• City population: 26,781
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $72,878
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 613.0

Population outlook (Codington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,752 people
• By 2030: 30,627 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 32,285 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 33,812 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 39,184 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 46,673 · +56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Codington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 28.4% · R 69.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.4pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+6.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 165.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $38,500 NESD
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $40,500 NESD
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $42,950 NESD
• 2025-06-24 Listed $49,500 NESD
• 2022-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-26 Sold (MLS) $26,000 NESD
• 2021-07-13 Listed $35,000 NESD
• 2019-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
• 2019-01-28 Sold (MLS) $30,500 NESD
• 2018-11-14 Listed $35,000 NESD

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $95 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.