4421 Hereford Farm Rd Rd · Evans, GA 30809

$275,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1973 0.44 ac lot $106/sqft · 9% below area Est $302k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is currently zoned R1 * Check w/ Columbia County about rezoning property to S1 * S1 uses are personal care home, day care, salon as well as other uses * The main floor features a kitchen w/ Newer white cabinets and stainless appl's * There is a formal DR, LR and separate Den area * The owners BDR and 2 other Bdr's on also on the main level * The bottom level features a Bdr, huge family room and full bathroom *

Key facts

• Separate den area
• Full bathroom
• Lr

Tags

• STAINLESS APPLS
• FORMAL DR
• LR
• SEPARATE DEN AREA
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#20 in GA, #3,058 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 510 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,569 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,089
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -8.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8136 Sir Lancelot Ct	0.37mi	3/3.0	2,582 (-1%)	13mo	$335,185	$130	70
552 Waterford Dr	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,702 (+4%)	1mo	$380,000	$141	65
4478 Amanda Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,592 (-0%)	9mo	$370,000	$143	63
452 Connemara Trl	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,525 (-3%)	13mo	$349,900	$139	58
4580 Oxford Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,728 (+5%)	7mo	$445,000	$163	54
4586 Oxford Ct	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,412 (-7%)	6mo	$361,900	$150	49
8140 Sir Lancelot Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,947 (+13%)	15mo	$308,510	$105	43
535 Astor Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,409 (-8%)	10mo	$353,900	$147	41
532 Astor Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,433 (-7%)	14mo	$352,000	$145	41
4507 Amanda Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,988 (+15%)	7mo	$415,000	$139	36
4574 Oxford Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,243 (-14%)	14mo	$299,500	$134	33
4600 Oxford Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,423 (-7%)	22mo	$295,000	$122	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,100
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-57,334
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30809

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 510
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4497 Amanda Ln Evans, GA	4.0	2.5	2442	$2,200	$0.90	14d	1	0.53mi
4517 Crosland Dr Evans, GA	4.0	2.5	2578	$2,500	$0.97	43d	1	0.54mi
4702 Walnut Hill Dr Evans, GA	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,950	$1.03	14d	1	1.30mi
170 Shadowmoor Ct Augusta, GA	4.0	3.0	1944	$2,200	$1.13	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical
2. 2026-04-23
   price $275,000
3. 2025-10-29
   listed $300,000 Active
4. 2025-10-29
   listed $275,000 Active 436-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$899/yr (+$75/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$857
• After-tax cash flow: $2,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Evans

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #3058

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans, GA
• County: Columbia County · 154,184 people
• City population: 54,743
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 54,743
• Household income: $125,272
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 787.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.73%
• Current HPI: 220.4452
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.51%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $300,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.