45738 Ohio St · Lake Kathryn, FL 32767

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 10,700 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. BRAND NEW 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home, on its own lot. Pre-construction. Central A/C, Split Plan, Indoor Laundry, Beautiful Kitchen, Coffee bar & Living Room. Peaceful setting with no HOA. Located on the southern edge of the Ocala National Forest, it offers a quiet, nature-focused lifestyle with access to lakes, hiking, and wildlife.  The area is surrounded by pine forests and is known for its proximity to the Ocala National Forest and, specifically, the Alexander Springs Recreation Area. NEW SEPTIC AND NEW WELL.

Key facts

• Beautiful kitchen
• Living room
• Central a/c

Tags

• CENTRAL A/C
• SPLIT PLAN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• COFFEE BAR
• LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Pre-construction / New construction; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built new (projected completion June 30, 2026)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dry bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#896 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,780
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28523 Poinsettia Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	9mo	$159,000	$147	58
28700 Hibiscus Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (-3%)	13mo	$84,900	$77	42
28636 Hibiscus Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	5mo	$91,000	$70	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $102,295
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $295,818
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32767

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $170	+0% $109	+5% $49	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $43	+0% $109	+5% $175	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $154	base $109	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricestatus $175,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-03-05
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$376
• After-tax cash flow: $1,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kathryn

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #26433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kathryn, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.00%
• Current HPI: 372.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid