37913 Palmetto Palm Dr · Zephyrhills South, FL 33542

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1999 7,289 sqft lot Est $194k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Set beneath mature shade trees with a welcoming Florida feel, this spacious manufactured home offers comfortable single-level living, generous interior spaces, covered parking, and multiple areas for storage, hobbies, or outdoor enjoyment. From the wide driveway and oversized covered carport to the expansive screened and covered side patio, the property provides practical everyday convenience with room to relax and make the space your own. Inside, the floor plan opens to a bright, oversized living area filled with natural light from large windows. The living and dining spaces flow seamlessly together, creating an inviting setting for everyday living,

Key facts

• 7,289 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Zoning: RMH; Lot approximately 0.17 acres (about 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Property is homesteaded
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces south; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Yard lighting; Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.72%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37428 Lupine Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,581 (+5%)	6mo	$210,000	$133	61
5104 Little Lake Ct	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	3mo	$70,000	$52	50
4540 LA Force St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	20mo	$175,000	$135	48
37340 Tropical Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	5mo	$93,000	$66	47
3825 Court St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-2%)	14mo	$190,000	$128	47
37426 Melinda	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	16mo	$155,000	$108	44
3832 Michelle Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	9mo	$227,000	$162	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,072
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $20,193
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $711/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4820 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	22d	1	0.14mi
37688 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,935	$1.18	24d	1	0.14mi
37741 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,715	$1.11	24d	1	0.14mi
37685 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,970	$1.21	5d	1	0.14mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	0.15mi
38078 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	22d	1	0.16mi
38064 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	18d	1	0.16mi
38034 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.17mi
38028 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.18mi
38114 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,970	$1.21	22d	1	0.19mi
38126 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	22d	1	0.19mi
38142 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	22d	1	0.21mi
38162 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,800	$1.19	22d	1	0.22mi
38235 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	22d	1	0.24mi
38250 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,725	$1.14	22d	1	0.26mi
38256 Fallstone Way Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	15d	1	0.27mi
38055 Woodgate Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	24d	1	0.27mi
37726 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,985	$1.21	22d	1	0.37mi
37714 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,855	$1.20	15d	1	0.38mi
37711 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,765	$1.15	15d	1	0.39mi
4850 Foliage Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,780	$1.16	22d	1	0.40mi
37643 Leafside Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,840	$1.19	22d	1	0.43mi
37472 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	0.55mi
37373 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,200	$1.41	10d	1	0.65mi
5143 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	24d	1	0.66mi
37357 Sharks Eye Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.67mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.94mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.04mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $150,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 75.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$711
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $4,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+689.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1994-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $711 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.