2806 Yaeger Rd · Oakville, MO 63129

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1954 0.75 ac lot $101/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare 3/4 Acre Opportunity in South County – Prime Flat Lot on Yaeger. Amazing opportunity to build on a spacious 0.74-acre flat parcel located just off Yaeger in desirable South County. This property currently features a 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home; however, the structure is not livable and will require teardown—offering a clean slate for your custom new construction project. With no HOA restrictions, you have the flexibility to bring your own plans and create the home you’ve been envisioning. Important Notes: Property is being sold strictly as-is, Interior access is not permitted, Exterior showings only with a written, acceptable offer, Do not walk the property without a

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential single-family home; Above-grade living area reported as 1,438 (source: assessor); Lot size approximately 0.746 acre
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with 6 spaces (approximately 704 sq ft total garage size); 6 parking spaces total
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: Single-family residential property; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Level lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total, 3 on the main level, 1 on the lower level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Partially finished full basement with sleeping area; Wood-burning fireplace serving family room and recreation room; Attic fan; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($736/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Oakville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#158 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oakville Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 386 students, 22% FRL); Oakville Sr. High (math 25% / reading 58%, grade F, #234 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,780 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,867
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -52.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2664 Victron Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,457 (+1%)	8mo	$290,000	$199	79
5371 Stonehurst Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+5%)	10mo	$325,000	$216	71
5373 Chatfield Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+3%)	2mo	$349,999	$237	69
2756 Irondale Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+6%)	1mo	$305,000	$201	68
2742 Yaeger Rd	0.09mi	3/3.5	1,575 (+10%)	9mo	$375,000	$238	67
5452 Edelweis Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-7%)	1mo	$335,000	$252	67
5405 Edelweis Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-8%)	6mo	$300,000	$228	62
5494 Fireleaf Dr	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,586 (+10%)	9mo	$364,900	$230	62
5621 Chalet Manor Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-3%)	9mo	$274,900	$198	62
2738 Fordham Dr	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,322 (-8%)	9mo	$345,000	$261	58
2526 Cathedral Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-6%)	8mo	$280,000	$208	55
5126 Firelight Ct	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,519 (+6%)	7mo	$329,900	$217	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-19,537
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,764
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63129

• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,824/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5549 Southfield Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	2d	4	0.55mi
2807 Innsbruck Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,113	$1.44	2d	8	0.74mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    listed $145,000 Active 944-char remark
14. 2026-04-30
    historical $145,000 944-char remark
15. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus $205,000
16. 1995-04-12
    soldstatus $117,500
17. 1993-04-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,824 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,824 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,824
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $1,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oakville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #8790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 51,553
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,553
• Household income: $94,888
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 743.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% American 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.14%
• Current HPI: 208.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+23.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 1993-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,824 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.