127 Warwick Cir · Alabaster, AL 35007

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1996 4,791 sqft lot $183/sqft · 16% below area Est $267k · 16% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Alabaster! Located at 127 Warwick Circle, this home offers a functional layout and solid condition, making it a great opportunity for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood flooring in the kitchen and den that adds warmth and character to the main living spaces. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, providing a durable and stylish workspace. While the home has not been recently updated, it has been well cared for and is move-in ready with plenty of potential to make it your own. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, with each bedroom positioned on opposite sides of the home—ideal for roommates, guests, or a home office setup. A rear-entry garage located at the back of the home provides convenient access and added curb appeal from the front. If you’re looking for a solid home with great bones in a convenient location, this one is worth a look!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Rear-entry garage
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• REAR-ENTRY GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Alabaster — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AL, #3,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alabaster City (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #17 of 129 in AL (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $225k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,018 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,675
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -15.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Warwick Cir	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,305 (+6%)	24mo	$226,000	$173	68
259 Warwick Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+14%)	2mo	$240,000	$171	67
101 Reese Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,317 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$186	48
206 Ironwood Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,385 (+13%)	15mo	$227,000	$164	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,510
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-67,852
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35007

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $186,905

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-152	+0% $-216	+5% $-279	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-331	-5% $-273	+0% $-216	+5% $-158	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-158	base $-216	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Windsor Ct Alabaster, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$1,351	$1.28	3d	10	1.02mi
403 3rd St NE Unit 422 Alabaster, AL	2.0	1.0	845	$1,250	$1.48	45d	1	1.03mi
403 3rd St NE Unit 508 Alabaster, AL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	45d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $225,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Contingent 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    status $225,000 Contingent 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    price $225,000 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Alabaster! Located at 127 Warwick Circle, this home offers a functional layout and solid condition, making it a great opportunity for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood flooring in the kitchen and den that adds warmth and character to the main living spaces. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, providing a durable and stylish workspace. While the home has not been recently updated, it has been well cared for and is move-in ready with plenty of potential to make it your own. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, with each bedroom positioned on opposite sides of the home—ideal for roommates, guests, or a home office setup. A rear-entry garage located at the back of the home provides convenient access and added curb appeal from the front. If you’re looking for a solid home with great bones in a convenient location, this one is worth a look!

14. 2026-03-30
    status Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Alabaster! Located at 127 Warwick Circle, this home offers a functional layout and solid condition, making it a great opportunity for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood flooring in the kitchen and den that adds warmth and character to the main living spaces. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, providing a durable and stylish workspace. While the home has not been recently updated, it has been well cared for and is move-in ready with plenty of potential to make it your own. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, with each bedroom positioned on opposite sides of the home—ideal for roommates, guests, or a home office setup. A rear-entry garage located at the back of the home provides convenient access and added curb appeal from the front. If you’re looking for a solid home with great bones in a convenient location, this one is worth a look!

15. 2026-03-26
    historical Contingent 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Alabaster! Located at 127 Warwick Circle, this home offers a functional layout and solid condition, making it a great opportunity for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood flooring in the kitchen and den that adds warmth and character to the main living spaces. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, providing a durable and stylish workspace. While the home has not been recently updated, it has been well cared for and is move-in ready with plenty of potential to make it your own. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, with each bedroom positioned on opposite sides of the home—ideal for roommates, guests, or a home office setup. A rear-entry garage located at the back of the home provides convenient access and added curb appeal from the front. If you’re looking for a solid home with great bones in a convenient location, this one is worth a look!

16. 2026-03-20
    listed $230,000 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Alabaster! Located at 127 Warwick Circle, this home offers a functional layout and solid condition, making it a great opportunity for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood flooring in the kitchen and den that adds warmth and character to the main living spaces. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, providing a durable and stylish workspace. While the home has not been recently updated, it has been well cared for and is move-in ready with plenty of potential to make it your own. The split-bedroom floor plan offers privacy, with each bedroom positioned on opposite sides of the home—ideal for roommates, guests, or a home office setup. A rear-entry garage located at the back of the home provides convenient access and added curb appeal from the front. If you’re looking for a solid home with great bones in a convenient location, this one is worth a look!

17. 2016-08-04
    soldstatus $128,000
18. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus $128,000 Sold 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Great home in Weatherly. Pool and Tennis Courts nearby. Home has new carpet and Fresh Paint. Refrigerator Stays, Washer and Dryer Stays. Den and Dining room have hardwood floors. Both bathrooms have tile. This home is clean and ready to move in.

19. 2016-07-21
    status Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Great home in Weatherly. Pool and Tennis Courts nearby. Home has new carpet and Fresh Paint. Refrigerator Stays, Washer and Dryer Stays. Den and Dining room have hardwood floors. Both bathrooms have tile. This home is clean and ready to move in.

20. 2016-07-14
    status Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Great home in Weatherly. Pool and Tennis Courts nearby. Home has new carpet and Fresh Paint. Refrigerator Stays, Washer and Dryer Stays. Den and Dining room have hardwood floors. Both bathrooms have tile. This home is clean and ready to move in.

21. 2016-06-29
    status Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Great home in Weatherly. Pool and Tennis Courts nearby. Home has new carpet and Fresh Paint. Refrigerator Stays, Washer and Dryer Stays. Den and Dining room have hardwood floors. Both bathrooms have tile. This home is clean and ready to move in.

22. 2016-05-25
    listed $135,000 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Great home in Weatherly. Pool and Tennis Courts nearby. Home has new carpet and Fresh Paint. Refrigerator Stays, Washer and Dryer Stays. Den and Dining room have hardwood floors. Both bathrooms have tile. This home is clean and ready to move in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alabaster City
• NCES district ID: 0100190
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $68,690
• Composite: 39.07/100
• National rank: #4052
• State rank: #17 of 129 in AL

Livability — Alabaster

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3512

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alabaster, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 28,586
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 28,586
• Household income: $88,505
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.63%
• Current HPI: 211.0691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $225,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $230,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-22 Sold (MLS) $128,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-07-21 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-07-14 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-06-29 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-05-25 Listed $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $894 · +57.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.