22526 91st Avenue Ct E #31 · Graham, WA 98338

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2023 Est $133k · 35% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW home located in the pride of ownership all ages community of The Ridge. Great location close to amenities. Home features 1,493 sf, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large living area, kitchen with stainless appliances, pantry and an island with eating area, dining room/flex room to use as you wish off the kitchen, large primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet, the other two bedrooms have walk in closets too. Park rent only $975. Price includes seller paid sales tax, a one year standard warranty from Fidelity at closing and three months free park rent too. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2023
• Listed 138 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Bus line nearby
• Financial info: Land lease: $975/month; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in a manufactured home park (The Ridge) with about 40 homes; Park approved for sale; Park amenities include common area and high-speed internet availability

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; RV parking available in park
• Utilities: Electric energy; Public water (Washington Water); Septic sewer; Electric water heater; Cable (Xfinity); Internet (Xfinity); Power supplied by Tacoma Power
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Clayton Tempo model; Has a view; Very good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Manufactured after June 15, 1976; Mobile home remains
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Corner lot; Dead-end street; Paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Tie down foundation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Water heater located in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.11%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,056
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8911 226th St E #18	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	18mo	$105,000	$88	80
22716 91st Avenue Ct E #40	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	20mo	$120,000	$97	73
22505 91st Ave E	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	6mo	$113,300	$84	72
9016 220th Street Ct E	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+8%)	3mo	$405,000	$314	68
8805 226th Street Ct E #32	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-9%)	7mo	$110,000	$102	65
22607 91st Avenue Ct E #10	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	15mo	$150,000	$112	63
22210 92nd Avenue Ct E #6	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+9%)	17mo	$130,000	$100	60
9117 232nd St E	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$262	58
9005 219th Street Ct E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+13%)	1mo	$380,000	$284	58
8106 224th St E	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-11%)	21mo	$605,000	$573	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $38,797
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $123,574
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $1,054

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,358

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,156	-5% $1,105	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,003	+10% $952
Rent	-10% $841	-5% $948	+0% $1,054	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,267
Rate	-1.0pp $1,145	-0.5pp $1,100	base $1,054	+0.5pp $1,008	+1.0pp $960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $179,900 Pending 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   price $179,900
5. 2026-04-09
   price $79,900
6. 2026-03-12
   price $184,900
7. 2026-01-14
   listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,107/yr (+$92/mo · 168.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $10,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $10,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $179,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $79,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $184,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $189,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $656 · +23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.