137 Waverly St · Buffalo, NY 14208

$198,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1910 Est $155k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single Family Three Bedroom Home in a quiet Buffalo neighborhood. Close to historic City Honors school and less than 10 minutes drive to Olmsted Delaware Park. The home features two living rooms, one large bathroom with washer and dryer and an open floor plan kitchen. Two car driveway and a large yard.

Key facts

• New electrical wires
• All new windows
• New insulation

Tags

• CLOSE TO PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• GUTTED OUT AND REWIRED
• NEW ELECTRICAL WIRES
• NEW INSULATION
• ALL NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1910
• Construction: Approximately 1,300 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Cold Springs subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,248 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Chester St	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (0%)	2mo	$250,000	$192	85
187 Chester St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,456 (+12%)	1mo	$99,000	$68	68
119 Purdy St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	18mo	$150,000	$118	68
146 Waverly St	0.03mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,456 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$172	65
86 Verplanck St	0.21mi	4/1.5	1,258 (-3%)	22mo	$115,000	$91	64
770 W Ferry St, #35	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,330 (+2%)	2mo	$479,000	$360	49
1319 Michigan Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,301 (+0%)	22mo	$155,000	$119	49
59 Landon St	0.53mi	4/1.0	1,424 (+10%)	14mo	$76,500	$54	47
218 Glenwood Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,461 (+12%)	24mo	$247,000	$169	40
378 Northland Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,183 (-9%)	9mo	$125,000	$106	40
1274 Michigan Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-11%)	23mo	$213,000	$185	25
352 Florida St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-12%)	23mo	$70,000	$61	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,004
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,640
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14208

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $400/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.13mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	43d	1	0.32mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.45mi
238 Oxford Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.54mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.59mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	0.60mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	0.72mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	3d	1	0.72mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	43d	1	0.90mi
1560 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	23d	1	0.91mi
685 Auburn Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	14d	1	0.94mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	0.95mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.00mi
825 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.00mi
825 Forest Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	3d	1	1.00mi
118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	14d	1	1.25mi
31 Norwood Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	11d	1	1.37mi
478 Breckenridge St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	43d	1	1.37mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	23d	1	1.41mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	1.43mi
891 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	43d	1	1.44mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	43d	1	1.45mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $198,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,873 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,473/yr (+$123/mo · 368.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$400
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$72
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,572
• Household income: $48,476
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 15% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.37%
• Current HPI: 459.2084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $198,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-06-06 Listed $195,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-11-19 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $168,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $189,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · +178.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.