478 Water Ct · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$209,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,059 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974 0.25 ac lot Est $164k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home To This Amazing 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Car Garage Home!! Property located in the beautiful well-established neighborhood of Silver Shores. Home features block construction, a large FLORIDA ROOM that can be used as a 3RD BEDROOM, or any additional space. Big fenced back yard with lots of space for your pets to have room to run. Many upgrades have been made, New Roof (from 2020, 30 years shingles) Brand New kitchen cabinets with new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, Brand new laminate flooring in bedrooms, New garage door, and motor, plus new light fixtures, doors/closets, renovated bathrooms and so much more. Conveniently located near all major highways, shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. measurements should be verified by the buyer.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Walk-in shower
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED EN SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• ENCLOSED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.25 acre (approx. 80 x 135), paved road
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car), garage dimensions 14 x 29
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Faces southeast; Residential zoning (R1)
• Construction: Block, concrete and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-family residence
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Sliding glass doors; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Split-bedroom floor plan; Stone countertops; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,999 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,145
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 Spring Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,015 (-4%)	13mo	$230,000	$227	60
47 Lake Court Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+9%)	4mo	$140,000	$122	53
440 Spring Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0	900 (-15%)	8mo	$192,500	$214	50
11 Spring Lake Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+11%)	19mo	$199,900	$169	42
9321 Pine Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,217 (+15%)	22mo	$188,750	$155	41
34 Bahia Court Trak	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+14%)	17mo	$154,979	$128	33
101 Spring Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,154 (+9%)	22mo	$140,000	$121	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $41,558
• Equity at exit: $131,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $125,883
• Equity at exit: $236,900

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,699/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $171,004

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
478 Water Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	21d	1	0.07mi
455 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,450	$1.14	14d	1	0.08mi
9337 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,765	$1.26	14d	1	0.11mi
446 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,425	$1.14	21d	1	0.13mi
54 Pine Trak Unit 104F Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,300	$1.56	21d	1	0.40mi
58 Pine Trak Unit 104D Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	21d	1	0.44mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	14d	1	0.44mi
62 Pine Trak Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,250	$1.50	21d	1	0.46mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	21d	1	0.51mi
708 Bahia Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.55mi
544 Silver Crse Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.67mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	21d	1	0.69mi
633 Silver Pass Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.77mi
593 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,200	$1.16	21d	1	0.77mi
549 Fairways Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,200	$1.12	21d	1	0.83mi
561 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,250	$1.21	21d	1	0.84mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	21d	1	0.85mi
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	21d	1	0.85mi
532 Bahia Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,300	$1.27	21d	1	0.87mi
553 Fairways Cir Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,700	$1.30	14d	1	0.87mi
582 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.92mi
520 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,100	$1.07	21d	1	0.93mi
548 Fairways Cir Unit C102 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	21d	1	0.94mi
510 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	21d	1	0.94mi
576 Fairways Ln Unit M104 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,250	$1.49	21d	1	0.99mi
454 Fairways Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,200	$1.43	21d	1	1.03mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B204 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,289	$1.54	21d	1	1.03mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B203 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	21d	1	1.03mi
567 Midway Trak Unit H201 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,350	$1.31	14d	1	1.03mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	14d	1	1.04mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	21d	1	1.04mi
7817 Midway Drive Ter Unit A103 Ocala, FL	1.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	21d	1	1.07mi
608 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,500	$1.42	14d	1	1.16mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	21d	1	1.17mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	21d	1	1.22mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	1.24mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	21d	1	1.30mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	14d	1	1.31mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	14d	1	1.36mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $214,900 Active
17. 2022-04-06
    soldstatus $205,000
18. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus $205,000 Closed 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Welcome Home To This Amazing 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Car Garage Home!! Property located in the beautiful well-established neighborhood of Silver Shores. Home features block construction, a large FLORIDA ROOM that can be used as a 3RD BEDROOM, or any additional space. Big fenced back yard with lots of space for your pets to have room to run. Many upgrades have been made, New Roof (from 2020, 30 years shingles) Brand New kitchen cabinets with new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, Brand new laminate flooring in bedrooms, New garage door, and motor, plus new light fixtures, doors/closets, renovated bathrooms and so much more. Conveniently located near all major highways, shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. measurements should be verified by the buyer.

19. 2022-03-04
    status Pending 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Welcome Home To This Amazing 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Car Garage Home!! Property located in the beautiful well-established neighborhood of Silver Shores. Home features block construction, a large FLORIDA ROOM that can be used as a 3RD BEDROOM, or any additional space. Big fenced back yard with lots of space for your pets to have room to run. Many upgrades have been made, New Roof (from 2020, 30 years shingles) Brand New kitchen cabinets with new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, Brand new laminate flooring in bedrooms, New garage door, and motor, plus new light fixtures, doors/closets, renovated bathrooms and so much more. Conveniently located near all major highways, shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. measurements should be verified by the buyer.

20. 2022-02-24
    listed $199,900 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Welcome Home To This Amazing 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Car Garage Home!! Property located in the beautiful well-established neighborhood of Silver Shores. Home features block construction, a large FLORIDA ROOM that can be used as a 3RD BEDROOM, or any additional space. Big fenced back yard with lots of space for your pets to have room to run. Many upgrades have been made, New Roof (from 2020, 30 years shingles) Brand New kitchen cabinets with new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, Brand new laminate flooring in bedrooms, New garage door, and motor, plus new light fixtures, doors/closets, renovated bathrooms and so much more. Conveniently located near all major highways, shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. measurements should be verified by the buyer.

21. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $92,000
22. 2007-11-13
    historical
23. 2006-05-23
    listed $95,000
24. 2001-06-25
    soldstatus $48,900
25. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus $38,000
26. 1974-09-01
    soldstatus $34,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,699
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+529.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-01 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-24 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-23 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1974-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,150 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,699 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.