308 Granada Ter · Warner Robins, GA 31088

$210,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1979 0.37 ac lot Est $237k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 2.5 bath, 2058 Sq Ft.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-104/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 538 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins Middle School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #237 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 813 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins High School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #322 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 1,816 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,031 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,670
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 Lakeshore Drive Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,176 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$138	82
515 Kimberly Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (+4%)	2mo	$236,600	$110	74
314 Forest Hill Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,868 (-9%)	0mo	$210,000	$112	61
625 Todd Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-9%)	1mo	$250,000	$133	61
402 Pine Valley Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-3%)	9mo	$192,000	$96	59
503 Todd Cir	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,919 (-7%)	5mo	$220,000	$115	56
215 Forest Hill Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,790 (-13%)	9mo	$170,000	$95	53
413 Tracy Ter	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,831 (-11%)	1mo	$181,000	$99	51
215 Kimberly Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-10%)	4mo	$205,000	$110	47
104 Oak Forest Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (-13%)	5mo	$230,000	$128	45
207 Atrium Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,759 (-14%)	8mo	$220,000	$125	39
120 Bramblewood Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (-15%)	8mo	$295,339	$168	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-36,837
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,805
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31088

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,673/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,681

Max offer price $208,471

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
337 Mary Ln Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,500	$1.06	13d	1	1.14mi
341 Mary Ln Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,350	$0.96	21d	1	1.16mi
121 Highland Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,795	$1.05	44d	1	1.20mi
121 Highland Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,795	$1.05	21d	1	1.20mi
132 Cathy Ct Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,450	$1.02	13d	1	1.36mi
132 Cathy Ct Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.5	1428	$1,450	$1.02	21d	1	1.36mi
211 Laverne Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,395	$0.97	13d	1	1.39mi
201 Sherman St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-16
   historical
2. 2025-12-02
   listed $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,673 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$259/yr (+$22/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,673
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$902
• After-tax cash flow: $798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 58,585
• Household income: $83,082
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 32% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.75%
• Current HPI: 219.8261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Delisted — CGMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $210,000 CGMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,673 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.