Overton Plan · Madison, AL 35758

$420,599

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,682 sqft · SingleFamily · 335 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Expanded pantry
• Built-in appliances

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT PLAN
• VAULTED LIVING AREA
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EXPANDED PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $420,599 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $747,686.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $421k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$128k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,712 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.59%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 20.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $747,686
• List price: $420,599
• Delta: -43.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
639 Town Madison Blvd	0.06mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,670 (-0%)	6mo	$731,846	$274	82
615 Town Madison Blvd	0.06mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,535 (-6%)	6mo	$590,000	$233	74
140 Bourbon Aly	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,840 (+6%)	4mo	$645,000	$227	73
103 Emerald Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,709 (+1%)	9mo	$503,000	$186	71
381 Saint Louis St	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,770 (+3%)	5mo	$839,900	$303	69
663 Town Madison Blvd	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,730 (+2%)	13mo	$645,000	$236	68
366 Saint Louis St	0.14mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,825 (+5%)	9mo	$788,716	$279	68
114 Canterbury Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,699 (+1%)	6mo	$420,000	$156	66
213 Saint Louis St	0.31mi	5/3.5	2,949 (+10%)	6mo	$649,900	$220	60
206 Mainsail Way	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,747 (+2%)	6mo	$450,000	$164	54
377 Saint Louis St	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,055 (+14%)	11mo	$859,900	$281	48
89 Clearbrook Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,368 (-12%)	9mo	$410,000	$173	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $229,631
• Equity at exit: $673,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $804,220
• Equity at exit: $1,452,590

Cash invested: $209,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35758

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,921
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$935 /mo · $11,215/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-2,720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,541

Max offer price $354,045

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $186,922
• Closing costs: $22,431
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Napolean Ave Madison, AL	4.0	3.5	2761	$3,650	$1.32	23d	1	0.13mi
103 Rainwood Dr SW Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,400	$1.11	43d	1	1.24mi
325 Acorn Grove Ln SW Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,200	$1.13	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,599 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,599 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,599 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,599 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $420,599 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $420,599 Active 327 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,599 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,599 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,599 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,599 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,599 Active 319 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,599 Active 318 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,599 Active 317 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $420,599 Active 316 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $420,599 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $419,799 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

17. 2026-03-06
    status Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

18. 2026-03-06
    price $417,099 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

19. 2026-03-05
    historical 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

20. 2025-07-17
    listed $416,799 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Discover the Overton-a flexible, open-concept plan designed for connection and comfort. A refined foyer leads to a vaulted living area filled with natural light. The kitchen features a large center island, built-in appliances, granite countertops, and an expanded pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the dining area-perfect for hosting or everyday living. A private retreat offers a spacious layout with a spa-like bath, including a granite double vanity, garden tub, and tiled shower. Upstairs, a versatile bonus room with a half bath suits a variety of needs. The Overton offers timeless style with modern functionality.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,882
• − Property taxes: −$11,215
• − Insurance: −$3,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,973
• − Management: −$2,973
• − Depreciation: −$21,751
• Taxable loss: −$47,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,368
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison City
• NCES district ID: 0100008
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $89,091
• Composite: 55.56/100
• National rank: #1238
• State rank: #4 of 129 in AL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, AL
• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• City population: 93,742
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 50,266
• Household income: $117,380
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 875.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.46%
• Current HPI: 355.2784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $420,599 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $419,799 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $417,099 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Listed $416,799 Zillow