Belmont Plan · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$279,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

• Single level
• Patio access
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• PATIO ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $279,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Belmont); Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: Lehigh Acres, FL (12451 Amber Waves Rd)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Belmont); Living area approximately 1429

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,788.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-840/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,148 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,788
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11905 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$171	80
19741 Garden Ridge Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,429 (0%)	10mo	$241,250	$169	76
19807 Garden Ridge Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	16mo	$300,000	$207	76
11933 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	4mo	$245,000	$165	70
11917 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	4mo	$254,000	$171	70
11901 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	3mo	$255,597	$172	69
426 Progress Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	66
19611 Fairhill Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,429 (0%)	10mo	$242,597	$170	58
354 Martineau Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	6mo	$269,597	$181	56
19737 Garden Ridge Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-12%)	12mo	$255,000	$202	55
19993 Lake Vista Cir N	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+8%)	2mo	$250,000	$162	51
414 Pinehurst Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+14%)	3mo	$365,000	$224	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $123,393
• Equity at exit: $221,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $356,123
• Equity at exit: $477,512

Cash invested: $68,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2460
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,289
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,687/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $235,657

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,447
• Closing costs: $7,374
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12321 Dakota Ridge Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,850	$1.28	14d	1	0.19mi
19931 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,248	$1.24	23d	1	0.24mi
19750 Garden Ridge Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.31mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.32mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,900	$1.31	3d	1	0.32mi
520 Creuset Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,700	$1.62	23d	1	0.40mi
11918 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.42mi
20012 Petrucka Cir N Unit D Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,750	$1.15	23d	1	0.46mi
645 Homestead Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,700	$1.46	23d	1	0.56mi
19949 Lake Vista Cir N #1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,800	$1.25	23d	1	0.66mi
19949 Lake Vista Cir Unit 16C Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,600	$1.05	23d	1	0.67mi
510 Caywood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	23d	1	0.68mi
19933 Lake Vista Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,750	$0.99	19d	1	0.71mi
20055 Lake Vista Cir N Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,700	$1.18	23d	1	0.72mi
463 Piedmont St Unit 463 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	3d	1	0.72mi
598 Aston Lake Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,395	$1.41	21d	1	0.74mi
606 Morningmist Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1817	$2,295	$1.26	3d	1	0.74mi
515 Croydon Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1253	$2,200	$1.76	3d	1	0.76mi
438 Poplar St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,150	$1.31	3d	1	0.77mi
448 Grant Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,650	$1.33	21d	1	0.78mi
448 Grant Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,595	$1.28	1d	1	0.78mi
448 Grant Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,595	$1.28	1d	1	0.78mi
442 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1199	$1,625	$1.36	13d	1	0.80mi
696 Homestead Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1777	$2,200	$1.24	23d	1	0.81mi
19542 Fairhill Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,700	$1.19	23d	1	0.84mi
351 Ranchito Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	0.87mi
448 Reading St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,890	$1.72	3d	1	0.91mi
304 Preston St Unit 304 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,350	$1.55	23d	1	0.91mi
304 Preston St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,150	$1.35	3d	1	0.92mi
437 Reading St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,795	$0.98	1d	1	0.92mi
567 Charwood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,900	$1.21	14d	1	0.92mi
337 Marabou Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,300	$1.24	3d	1	0.93mi
546 Whispering Wind Bnd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	1d	1	0.95mi
363 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	23d	1	0.97mi
532 Ilaria Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,300	$1.44	15d	1	0.97mi
337 Rancho Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,150	$1.25	23d	1	0.98mi
357 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	15d	1	0.99mi
430 Petite Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	14d	1	1.01mi
334 Ranch Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$2,150	$1.31	3d	1	1.01mi
397 Carrillon Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	3d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,999 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,999 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,999 Active 169 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,768
• − Property taxes: −$3,687
• − Insurance: −$1,229
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$7,150
• Taxable loss: −$5,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,213
• After-tax cash flow: $373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B