111 Janine · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2003 0.60 ac lot $218/sqft · 25% below area Est $366k · 25% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light.The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. *NOT A MOBILE HOME*

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Space to park rv
• Back deck

Tags

• 0.60 ACRE LOT
• BACK DECK
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• SPACE TO PARK A BOAT
• SPACE TO PARK RV
• SPACE TO BUILD A WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $275k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,470 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,337
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -24.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Legacy Rdg	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	6mo	$315,000	$250	90
2043 Rocky Ridge Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+5%)	11mo	$375,000	$283	68
220 Cody	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+12%)	1mo	$349,900	$248	66
1084 Lasso Loop	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+14%)	10mo	$392,000	$272	57
1229 Marlys	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+8%)	10mo	$356,000	$262	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,909
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-108,402
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,631/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $220,720

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
968 Marlys Ave Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$2,400	$1.86	23d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $284,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $284,900 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

15. 2026-04-15
    price $284,900 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

16. 2026-04-15
    price $284,900

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $285,000 New 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $285,000 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

19. 2026-03-12
    listed $285,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    This charming Hill Country retreat welcomes you to the heart of Canyon Lake! Situated on an open and spacious 0.60 acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a canvas for new beginnings and personal detail. Built in 2003, this home features a comfortable and intimate layout with plenty of natural light. The back deck is ideal for enjoying a morning cup of coffee. This lot offers ample space for outdoor entertaining as well as room to park a boat or RV. There is even enough space to build a workshop. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake boat ramps and parks this property is ideal for a full-time residence, weekend getaway or potential investment property. Convenient access to new Braunfels, San Antonio and surrounding Hill country makes this home an easy place to enjoy both relation and adventure. * NOT A MOBILE HOME *

20. 2014-06-25
    soldstatus
21. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus
22. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus $115,000
23. 2014-05-15
    historical
24. 2014-04-09
    listed $119,500
25. 2014-04-09
    listed $119,500
26. 2012-09-28
    historical
27. 2012-04-12
    listed $129,900
28. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,631 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,402/yr (+$117/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,631
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+119.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $284,900 LERA
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $284,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $284,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $285,000 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Listed $285,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $285,000 Unlock MLS
• 2014-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2014-06-20 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2014-05-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2014-04-09 Listed $119,500 LERA
• 2014-04-09 Listed $119,500 CTXMLS
• 2012-09-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2012-04-12 Listed $129,900 LERA
• 2005-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,631 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.