304 Jill St · Conroe, TX 77303

$215,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1983 9,060 sqft lot $176/sqft · 36% above area Est $231k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Many upgrades
• Spacious back porch
• Easy access to i-45

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I-45
• MANY UPGRADES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• UPGRADED BATHROOM SHOWERS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR SHOPPING STORES
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reaves El (math 58% / reading 50%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 745 students, 85% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 12013% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $215k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,455 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,779
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -6.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Jill St	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,293 (+6%)	3mo	$160,000	$124	78
307 Jill St	0.03mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,325 (+8%)	3mo	$165,000	$125	75
2221 N Thompson St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,220 (-0%)	12mo	$179,900	$147	73
603 Hildred Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (+9%)	8mo	$250,000	$189	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-45,910
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,546
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,892

Max offer price $198,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-32	+0% $-93	+5% $-154	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-163	+0% $-93	+5% $-23	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-38	base $-93	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Kathy St Unit KA605 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	16d	1	0.80mi
204 Peggy St Unit PG204 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	22d	1	0.81mi
113 Betty St Unit BE113 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	22d	1	0.88mi
2200 Plantation Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,798	$1.73	0d	18	0.91mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 1233 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,353	$1.23	12d	1	1.03mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,313	$1.19	1d	1	1.03mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,935	$1.51	1d	1	1.19mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,975	$1.54	12d	1	1.19mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 833 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,197	$1.72	45d	1	1.19mi
907 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,760	$1.36	45d	1	1.21mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 934 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,513	$1.17	12d	1	1.24mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,473	$1.14	1d	1	1.24mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,524	$1.18	13d	1	1.26mi
115 Lillian St Unit LL115 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	7d	1	1.31mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,774	$1.50	1d	1	1.49mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1933 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,814	$1.53	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $1,775
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-28
    historical $1,800

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-04-28
    historical 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-22
    price $215,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-01-13
    listed $1,800
21. 2026-01-10
    price $220,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2025-12-11
    listed $229,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Prime Location, easy access to I-45. Home has many upgrades including granite counter tops, upgraded bathroom showers. Close to major shopping stores. Spacious back porch, there are no back neighbors. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2025-10-20
    historical
24. 2025-10-07
    price $217,000
25. 2025-07-23
    listed $230,000 Active
26. 2025-07-07
    historical
27. 2025-03-27
    listed $234,900 Active
28. 2024-12-31
    historical $2,200
29. 2024-12-30
    historical
30. 2024-11-14
    price $235,000
31. 2024-10-31
    listed $2,200
32. 2024-09-26
    price $239,000
33. 2024-08-28
    listed $245,000 Active
34. 2024-08-11
    historical
35. 2024-06-28
    price $254,000
36. 2024-03-25
    listed $259,000 Active
37. 2022-04-06
    soldstatus
38. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2022-03-24
    status Pending
40. 2022-03-22
    price $1,880
41. 2022-03-17
    status Option Pending
42. 2022-03-07
    status Active
43. 2022-03-04
    status Option Pending
44. 2022-02-24
    listed $215,000 Active
45. 2014-07-02
    historical
46. 2014-07-01
    soldstatus
47. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus Sold
48. 2014-06-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show
49. 2014-06-03
    status Option Pending
50. 2014-05-16
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,330 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$604/yr (+$50/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-96.2% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed for Rent $1,775 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $1,880 RENT.
• 2022-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2014-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2009-01-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2008-12-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-10 Listed $43,900 HARMLS
• 2006-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-26 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $46,623 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,330 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.