202 S Elm St · Cambria, IL 62915

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Built 1940 10,000 sqft lot $44/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investor or buyer looking for fixer-upper in Carterville Schools. Ranch home with newer carpeting in living room and lots of neat nooks & crannies, built-ins and flexible spaces. 1-car attached garage. Window A/C unit, range, refrigerator.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.6% in Cambria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#931 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carterville CUSD 5 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #185 of 620 in IL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 38% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.59%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,471
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -75.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Madison St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	2mo	$210,000	$162	70
614 S Elm	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-1%)	12mo	$165,000	$134	65
314 Chestnut St	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,096 (-12%)	9mo	$76,000	$69	64
507 S Maple St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,173 (-6%)	9mo	$180,000	$153	63
411 N Maple St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-2%)	13mo	$89,900	$74	62
111 Bevard St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	10mo	$155,500	$130	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $28,389
• Equity at exit: $24,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.59×
• Total profit: $70,660
• Equity at exit: $38,112

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62915

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $518

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $357	+0% $341	+5% $326	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $304	+0% $341	+5% $379	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $355	base $341	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Paradise Acres Rd Unit 57 Carterville, IL	3.0	2.0	960	$950	$0.99	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-01-30
    status Active
18. 2026-01-21
    historical
19. 2026-01-07
    status Active
20. 2026-01-07
    historical
21. 2025-12-05
    historical Under Contract
22. 2025-12-05
    historical
23. 2025-11-27
    price
24. 2025-11-26
    status Active
25. 2025-05-27
    historical
26. 2025-05-27
    status Active
27. 2025-05-23
    historical
28. 2025-05-21
    price
29. 2024-11-23
    listed Active
30. 2015-12-15
    soldstatus $27,500
31. 2015-12-14
    soldstatus $27,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Great opportunity for investor or buyer looking for fixer-upper in Carterville Schools. Ranch home with newer carpeting in living room and lots of neat nooks & crannies, built-ins and flexible spaces. 1-car attached garage. Window A/C unit, range, refrigerator.

32. 2015-12-14
    soldstatus $27,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Great opportunity for investor or buyer looking for fixer-upper in Carterville Schools. Ranch home with newer carpeting in living room and lots of neat nooks & crannies, built-ins and flexible spaces. 1-car attached garage. Window A/C unit, range, refrigerator.

33. 2015-08-11
    listed $39,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Great opportunity for investor or buyer looking for fixer-upper in Carterville Schools. Ranch home with newer carpeting in living room and lots of neat nooks & crannies, built-ins and flexible spaces. 1-car attached garage. Window A/C unit, range, refrigerator.

34. 2015-08-11
    listed $39,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Great opportunity for investor or buyer looking for fixer-upper in Carterville Schools. Ranch home with newer carpeting in living room and lots of neat nooks & crannies, built-ins and flexible spaces. 1-car attached garage. Window A/C unit, range, refrigerator.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,445
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$827
• After-tax cash flow: $3,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carterville CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1708640
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.87/100
• National rank: #6122
• State rank: #185 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cambria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #931
• US rank: #18092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambria, IL
• City population: 473
• Population (ZIP): 473

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-31.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-23 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2015-12-14 Sold (MLS) $27,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-14 Sold (MLS) $27,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-11 Listed $39,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-11 Listed $39,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.